2009—2019年中国老年人心血管疾病死亡趋势及预测分析

目的 了解2009—2019年我国老年人心血管疾病总体死亡趋势并进行趋势预测的分析，为制定适合我国老年人心血管疾病整体防治策略提供相关理论基础。方法 利用2009—2019年《中国死因监测数据集》,采用joinpoint回归模型分析老年人心血管疾病死亡率的平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),应用GM(1,1)对我国2020—2030年老年人心血管疾病死亡粗率进行预测。结果 与2009年相比，2019年我国老年人心血管疾病平均死亡粗率降至2 039.99/10万，年龄标化死亡率则降至2 172.24/10万；我国总老年人群、老年男性和女性、城市和乡村老年人心血管疾病标化死亡率AAPC分别为-2.400%、-2.843%、-2.049%、-1.368%、-3.298%,均呈长期下降趋势，P<0.05;老年男性的死亡率下降速度快于老年女性，但2009—2019年老年男性心血管病标化死亡率始终较女性高；农村的下降速度快于城市，但2009—2019年农村老年人心血管病标化死亡率始终较城市高；随着年龄的增长，中国65岁以上老年人心血管疾病的死亡率逐渐上升，在≥85岁组死亡率达到最高，各年龄组AA...

Trend and prediction of cardiovascular disease mortality among elderly Chinese, 2009-2019

Objective To understand the overall trend of cardiovascular disease death among the elderly in China from 2009 to 2019 and predict the trend, by providing a relevant theoretical basis to formulate the overall prevention and treatment strategies for cardiovascular diseases in the elderly in China. Methods The China death cause surveillance data set from 2009 to 2019 and joinpoint regression model were used to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of cardiovascular disease mortality in the elderly, and GM (1,1) was used to predict the coarse rate of cardiovascular disease mortality in the elderly in China from 2020 to 2030. Results Compared with 2009, the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases among the elderly in China decreased to 2 039.99/100 000 in 2019, and the age-standardized mortality rate decreased to 2 172.24/100 000; the AAPC standard mortality rates of cardiovascular diseases in the total elderly population, elderly men and women, urban and rural elderly in China were -2.400%, -2.843%, -2.049%, -1.368% and -3.298% respectively, showing a decreasing trend (P<0.05); The mortality rate of older men decreased faster than that of women, but the standardized mortality rate of cardiovascular disease in older men was always higher than that of women from 2009 to 2019. The decline has been slower in urban areas than in rural areas, however, from 2009 to 2019, the standardized cardiovascular mortality rate of urban older persons over 65 years was consistently lower than that of rural older persons. In the elderly over 65 years old, the cardiovascular mortality rate increased rapidly with the increase of age, and the death rate was the highest in the elderly over 85 years old. Above 65 years old, AAPC were -0.508%, -1.585%, -1.787%, -1.715% and -4.221% respectively (P<0.05), the fastest rate of decline was also ≥85 years old group. GM (1,1) model predicted that the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases among the elderly in China would continue to decline from 2020 to 2030, and the estimated crude mortality rate would drop to 1 973.78/100 000 in 2030. Conclusion The burden of cardiovascular disease mortality is still heavy in China, especially among the elderly. Meanwhile, the cardiovascular disease mortality of the male is higher than the female, and the mortality of the rural is higher than urban. It is predicted that the crude rate of cardiovascular disease mortality in the elderly will decrease year by year, but it is still at a high level. Effective preventive measures should be taken and attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease in elderly men and rural areas.