Vaccination levels associated with lack of measles transmission among preschool-aged populations in the United States, 1989-1991

Knowledge of the minimum level of vaccination capable of preventing measles transmission in an age group is helpful for establishing program targets for measles elimination. In 1990, during the measles resurgence in the United States, one-half of cases occurred in children aged <5 years. Although estimated population immunity among persons >or=6 years of age was 93%, immunity was lower and varied widely among preschool-aged children. To examine the association of vaccine coverage at 2 years of age and measles incidence among preschool-aged children, we analyzed ecological studies of measles incidence in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) census tracts, Dallas (Texas) ZIP code areas, and selected cities during the 1989-1991 measles resurgence. In each study area, measles incidence decreased rapidly with increasing measles vaccine coverage and became low or negligible when coverage was >or=80%. Regression analysis also suggested that measles would not be transmitted when vaccine coverage was at least 79%. A minimum vaccine coverage of approximately 80% at the second birthday in census tracts, ZIP code areas, and cities in the United States may be sufficient to prevent measles transmission among preschool-aged children if population immunity is >or=93% among persons >or=6 years of age.