| 探讨ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾发病预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈莉.探讨ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾发病预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2011,28(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 海南省疾病预防控制中心(570203) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨时间序列分析方法中ARIMA模型在细菌性痢疾发病预测方面的应用,验证分析模型的可行性与适用性.方法 利用海南省2000年1月～2009年12月细菌性痢疾发病资料,拟合ARIMA模型,对海南省细菌性痢疾2010年1～9月各月发病率进行预测评价.结果 建立ARIMA(1,0,0)模型,预测结果基本符合实际发病率变动趋势,验证了该模型的可用性.结论ARIMA模型可用于模拟细菌性痢疾发病在时间序列上的变化趋势,进行短期预测.
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 时间序列 细菌性痢疾 |
Applications of ARIMA Model on Forecast Incidence of Bactllary Dysentery. |
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| Chen Li.Applications of ARIMA Model on Forecast Incidence of Bactllary Dysentery.[J].Chinese Journal of Health Statistics,2011,28(4). |
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| Authors: | Chen Li |
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| Institution: | Chen Li.Hainan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention(570203),Haikou |
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| Abstract: | Objective To explore the application of auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model of time series on forecast bacillary dysentery and confirm feasibility and applicability.Methods ARIMA model was fitted with data of monthly incidence from Jan.2000 to Dec.2009 for bacillary dysentery and the monthly incidence of Jan-Sep.2010 for bacillary dysentery was predicted and evaluated.Results The model of ARIMA(1,0,0) was established,which was used to verify its usability due to predictive results were ba... |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA Time series Bacillary dysentery |
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