Predictors of functional status in Japanese community-dwelling older persons during a 2-year follow up

Aims:   To clarify baseline sociodemographic and health characteristics that predict subsequent functional outcome in community-dwelling Japanese older persons.
Methods:   All subjects were enrolled from the April 2001 resident registry of Nomura-cho, Seiyo-city in Ehime prefecture. Of 1392 community-dwelling persons aged 65 and older who could provide complete responses to questionnaires including functional status in the first survey, 1105 subjects were also able to provide complete answers in the second survey. Functional status was categorized according to a hierarchical scale as: completely functional; with functional limitations; and with disabilities in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). A multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the ability of selected 2001 sociodemographic and health status variables to predict 2003 functional status.
Results:   Subjects consisted of 470 men (mean age ± standard deviation, 72 ± 5.9 years) and 635 women (73 ± 7.1 years). During the 2-year follow up, significant independent predictors of future functional status by multiple logistic regression analysis included: (i) age (odds ratio: 0.511, 95% confidence interval CI]: 0.329–0.791); (ii) spouse (1.655, 1.044–2.621); (iii) activities of daily living (3.231, 2.008–5.199); (iv) baseline instrumental self-maintenance (14.62, 9.065–23.57); and (v) social role (2.176, 1.419–3.337) after controlling for baseline functional status.
Conclusion:   These results indicate that many background factors are predictive of subsequent physical function in community-dwelling older persons. Thus, early prevention and intervention regarding these background factors might be critical to promote and maintain functional status.