灰色模型在我国伤寒副伤寒发病率预测中的应用

目的:研究伤寒副伤寒的发病规律,预测伤寒副伤寒的发病率,为卫生部门制定相应的防控措施提供理论依据。方法:根据我国2001~2007年伤寒副伤寒发病率资料建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,并预测2008、2009和2010年发病率。结果:所建模型经检验精度高(C=0.2889,P=1.0000,MAPE=8.30%),预测效果较理想。结论:预测伤寒副伤寒发病率呈下降趋势,但仍要继续做好伤寒副伤寒防控工作,防止其发病率升高。

Application of Grey Model on Forecasting the Incidence of Typhoid and Paratyphoid in China

Objective： To study the changing trend and forecast the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid,it will provide theoretical basis for health department to set out preventive measures.Methods： According to the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid during 2001~2007 in China,we formulate the GM（1,1） grey model,and forecast the incidence during 2008~2010.Results： The grey model was testified to be satisfied,with C=0.2889,P=1.0000,MAPE=8.30%,and it was ideal for forecasting.Conclusions： The grey model showed that the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid appeared a descending trend,but we still need to keep doing well in preventative work,lest the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid should ascend.