2013 - 2017年广州市手足口病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

目的 分析广州市2013 - 2017年手足口病流行特征及时空聚集性，为防控工作提供依据。方法 收集广州市2013 - 2017年手足口病发病数据，描述疾病的三间分布，并以街镇为单位应用SatScan V9.6软件进行时空扫描分析，分析结果采用ArcGis10.2进行可视化。结果 2013 - 2017年，广州市共报告手足口病329 002例，年均发病率为494.63/10万，呈下降趋势，2014年发病率最高为619.89/10万。每年发病呈双峰分布，5 - 7月为发病主高峰，9月为次高峰。所有患者中，5岁及以下儿童占83.21%，散居儿童居多（77.81%）。空间自相关和时空扫描结果显示手足口病高发病聚集区主要分布在环中心城区的白云区、天河区以及广州市西北部花都区的部分街镇，聚集范围呈逐年缩减趋势，低发病聚集区则主要分布在中心城区。结论 广州市2013 - 2017年手足口病发病率总体呈下降趋势，存在时空聚集性，白云区和花都区部分街镇应作为防控重点。

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis of hand-food-and-mouth disease in Guangzhou between 2013 and 2017

Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of hand-food-and-mouth disease in Guangzhou between 2013 and 2017, and thus to provide evidence for developing prevention and control measures. Methods The information about hand-food-and-mouth disease in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2017 was collected and described. SatScan V9.6 software was used to analyze temporal-spatial clustering, and the results were visualized by ArcGis10.2 software. Results A total of 329002 hand-food-and-mouth cases were reported from 2013 to 2017 in Guangzhou. The average annual incidence was 464.63/100000, showing a trend of decreasing, and reached the highest of 619.89/100000 in 2014. The annual incidence was bimodal distribution, and the primary peak was from May to July. And the secondary peak was in September. 83.21% of the cases were aged 5 and below, and most of them(77.81%) were scattered children. Temporal-spatial clustering analysis showed that the high-incidence areas of hand-food-and-mouth disease were mainly distributed in partial street towns of Baiyun and Tianhe district, which were around the central urban areas, and some street towns in the Huadu district in the northwest of Guangzhou, and the cluster range was decreasing year by year. Low-incidence areas were mainly distributed in the central urban areas. Conclusion The incidence of hand-food-and-mouth disease in Guangzhou generally showed a trend of decreasing from 2013 to 2017, and there was aggregation in space and time, partial street towns of Baiyun and Huadu district should be the focus of prevention and control.