Independent risk factors predicting acute graft rejection in cardiac transplant recipients treated by triple drug immunosuppression

To assess independent risk factors predicting the occurrence of clinically significant acute rejection episodes in the first 6 months after cardiac transplantation, we performed a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. Forty-three recipients, undergoing transplantation between September 1986 and May 1988, were eligible for analysis and received standardized, low-dose triple drug maintenance immunosuppression with cyclosporine, azathioprine, and prednisolone. Immunoprophylaxis was supplemented perioperatively with either a polyclonal (antithymocyte globulin, N = 26) or a monoclonal (OKT3, N = 17) anti-T-cell antibody. Investigated, conceivable risk factors comprised recipient and donor age, ischemic time, perioperative anti-T-cell antibody prophylaxis, recipient preoperative status, underlying disease, previous cardiac operation, and histocompatibility parameter (mismatches for HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-DR, HLA-B+DR, HLA-A+B+DR, and Rh0[D] antigen, HLA-DRw6 positive recipient, and identify for ABO system). Univariate analysis suggested significant influence of the type of antibody used perioperatively (p = 0.0024) and the number of mismatches for HLA-A+B+DR (p = 0.0037) and for HLA-B+DR (p = 0.0043). Stepwise logistic regression yielded the number of mismatches for HLA-B+DR (p = 0.0029) and the type of antibody used perioperatively (p = 0.0031) as being highly significant predictors of acute cardiac rejection. Six-month freedom from rejection was 100%, 41%, and 27% for recipients with two, three, and four mismatches for HLA-B+DR and 59% versus 22% for recipients with polyclonal versus monoclonal antibody prophylaxis. Similar to results with kidney transplantation, these results indicate that a poor donor/recipient match for combined HLA-B+DR loci constitutes an independent risk factor for acute graft rejection in low-dose triple drug immunosuppressed cardiac recipients, which stimulates the potential concept of prospective HLA matching. In our experience OKT3 prophylaxis provides significantly less effective prevention of acute rejection than a comparable course of antithymocyte globulin.