Estimation of the general threshold limit values for dust

In 1997 the German MAK Commission set new general threshold limit values for dust. The procedure has recently been assessed (McLaughlin et al. 2001). One of the points raised was the use of inappropriate statistical methods. We want to address this point to a greater extent by discussing several alternatives implied by the already established threshold models, and we present results from a new approach that has been refined in the meantime: the use of the additive isotonic model. The underlined assumption of monotonicity regarding the dose-response relationship has been extensively investigated. One very flexible model, based on smoothing splines, shows in some of the samples a decline in the risk over a certain range of the exposure compared to the risk at baseline. Another approach with fractional polynomials and segmented regression lines shows that this result can be explained by chance. These methods show an increasing risk with increasing exposure. Additionally, permutation tests are used to prove the trend within the isotonic framework. The results from the additive isotonic model confirm previous assessments of the general threshold limit value.