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神经网络模型和logistic回归在预测慢性阻塞性肺疾病中的应用研究
引用本文:唐雨萌,张岚,李茜,洪杰,李建华,祝淑珍. 神经网络模型和logistic回归在预测慢性阻塞性肺疾病中的应用研究[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2021, 32(2): 12-16
作者姓名:唐雨萌  张岚  李茜  洪杰  李建华  祝淑珍
作者单位:湖北省疾病预防控制中心慢性病防治研究所,武汉 430079;湖北省公安县疾病预防控制中心;湖北省应城市疾病预防控制中心
基金项目:湖北省卫生健康委面上项目(基于神经网络的湖北省慢性阻塞性肺疾病预测模型研究WJ2019M250)。
摘    要:目的 应用神经网络和logistic回归分析方法建立慢性阻塞性肺疾病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,COPD)数学预测模型.方法 通过横断面调查收集2015年湖北省2 400人的COPD流行病学资料,按7∶3的比例随机分为训练组与验证组,应用神经网络和logistic回归分...

关 键 词:慢性阻塞性肺疾病  神经网络模型  logistic回归  预测研究

Application of neural network model and logistic regression in the prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
TANG Yumeng,ZHANG Lan,LI Qian,HONG Jie,LI Jianhua,ZHU Shuzhen. Application of neural network model and logistic regression in the prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease[J]. Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, 2021, 32(2): 12-16
Authors:TANG Yumeng  ZHANG Lan  LI Qian  HONG Jie  LI Jianhua  ZHU Shuzhen
Affiliation:(Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,China;Gong’an Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou,Hubei 434300,China;Yingcheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiaogan 432400,China)
Abstract:Objective To establish a mathematical prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)by applying an artificial neural network(ANN)and logistic regression analysis method.Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2015 to collect epidemiological data of COPD of 2400 residents from Hubei Province.Subjects were randomized into training group and test group at a ratio of 7∶3.The prediction models of COPD were established using ANN and logistic multiple regression.The predictive performance of the two models was compared.Results Information from a total of 1569 subjects was valid and analyzed,including 1099 cases in the training group and 470 cases in the test group.The area under curve(AUC)of ANN for training group and test group was 0.80 and 0.78,respectively.The AUC of logistic regression for training group and test group was 0.75 and 0.74,respectively.Conclusion It is feasible to apply ANN and logistic regression models to predict COPD,which can provide scientific evidence for COPD prevention and treatment.
Keywords:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease  Artificial neural network  Logistic regression  Prediction
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