Variations in the pace of mortality decline in elderly in 7 Northwestern European countries between 1950-1999: the impact of smoking

OBJECTIVE: Examination of the variations in the pace of old-age (80+) mortality decline in 7 Northwestern European countries for the period 1950-1999, and the impact of smoking DESIGN: Retrospective. METHOD: The population mortality data of 7 Northwestern European countries were collated according to year of death for a 50 year period (1950-1999), single year of age (60+ and 80+) and sex. Both all-cause and non-smoking-related mortality were analysed. In addition, a comparison was made with the pace of mortality decline at younger age among the same cohorts. Regression and correlation analyses were used. RESULTS: Marked variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline were found between countries, periods and sexes. While mortality declines were constantly strong in France and England and Wales, modest declines or even increases in mortality rate were observed in the 1950s in the Nordic countries, and since the 1980s in Denmark, The Netherlands, and (for men only) Norway. For non-smoking-related mortality, a high and consistent pace ofmortality decline was observed. The declines showed a clear cohort pattern, with the smallest declines or even increases for men born between 1890 and 1899, compared to an increased pace of mortality decline among women born between 1847 and 1937. Among men, but not women, the pace of old-age mortality decline correlated with the pace of mortality decline at ages 60-69 among the same cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline are strongly influenced by smoking and probably also by other factors originating earlier in life. For future decades, substantial further declines in old-age mortality may be expected, even though rates of change in specific countries and periods would be difficult to predict.