Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, 62 Mills Rd, The Australian National University, Acton ACT 2601, Australia;2. Doherty Epidemiology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Level 5, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia;3. Infection and Immunity, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children’s Hospital, Flemington Rd, Parkville 3052, Victoria, Australia;4. School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Princess Margaret Hospital for Children, Roberts Rd, Subiaco, Perth, WA 6008, Australia;5. Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, 100 Roberts Rd, Subiaco, Perth, WA 6008, Australia;6. Department of Infectious Disease and PathWest Department of Microbiology, Princess Margaret Hospital for Children, Roberts Rd, Subiaco, WA 6008, Australia;1. Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;2. Agency for Care and Health, Infectious Disease Control and Vaccination, Brussels, Belgium;1. St Mary''s Hospital, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK;2. Centre of International Child Health, Department of Paediatrics, Imperial College London, London, UK;3. Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit, The Gambia, west Africa;1. School of Public Health, University of Queensland;2. Queensland Children''s Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland;3. Faculty of Science, University of Adelaide, South Australia;4. School of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, University of South Australia;1. Novavax, Inc., 20 Firstfield Road, Gaithersburg, MD 20878, USA;2. Baylor College of Medicine, One Baylor Plaza, Houston, TX 77030, USA;1. Mathematical and Economics Modelling (MAEMOD) Research Group, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand;2. Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand;3. School of Mathematics, Alan Turing Building, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, UK;4. KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya;5. GSK Vaccines, Wavre, Belgium;6. School of Life Sciences and WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK;7. Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;1. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia;2. CSIRO Data61; Mathematical Sciences Institute, The Australian National University; Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University, Australia;3. Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6–37% for 0–2 month old children, and 30–46% for 3–5 month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant’s first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely. |
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| Keywords: | Respiratory syncytial virus RSV Mathematical model Vaccine model Maternal vaccine |
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