影响严重急性呼吸综合征患者临床预后的早期预测因素研究

目的 探寻影响严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)患者临床预后的早期预测因素。方法 选取20例SARS死亡患者及40例治愈出院患者作为研究对象，收集发病早期临床资料及转归情况，应用多元Logistic回归及Cox比例风险模型分析早期预测因素。结果 单因素分析显示：临床恶化患者与预后良好患者之间在年龄、合并慢性疾病、心肌酶、血氧指标、淋巴细胞计数5方面差异有显著意义；多因素Logistic回归表明：高龄(P=0．009)及较低淋巴细胞计数(P=0．004)与临床恶化密切相关；Cox比例风险分析表明：在40例痊愈患者中淋巴细胞计数较低者(P=0．003)住院时间较长。结论 高龄、淋巴细胞计数下降与临床恶化关系密切，可用于预测SARS患者的临床预后。

Predictors associated with clinical deterioration in SARS patients

Objective To study the predictive factors associated with clinical deterioration in SARS patients. Methods The clinical data of 60 SARS patients were analyzed by logistic regression and Cox's proportional hazards analysis. Results In logistic regression models, both older age ( P =0.009 )and severe lymphopenia ( P =0.004) were significant predictors of clinical deterioration. In Cox's proportional hazard models, severe lymphopenia was significant predictor associated with prolongation of stay in hospital. Conclusion Older age and severe lymphopenia seem to be statistically significant for predicting the clinical deterioration in SARS patients.