德尔菲法在住宿场所卫生量化分级管理评分表指标体系改进中的应用

目的 用德尔菲(Delphi)法征求全国专家意见,改进住宿场所卫生量化分级管理指标体系,使之适应全国应用的需要.方法 对来自全国18个省(市)、自治区的78位专家进行两轮Delphi专家咨询,根据指标重要性得分的均值大小筛选指标并确定其权重.结果 专家从事卫生防疫工作的平均年限为(21.08±5.78)年,平均权威系数C<,r>为0.89±0.07.两轮咨询的专家应答率分别为98.72%(77/78)和100.00%(77/77),平均反馈时间分别为(8.49±4.48)d、(5.86±2.28)d,差异具有统计学意义(t=4.60,P<0.01).两轮咨询Kendall协调系数分别为0.26(X2=723.63,P<0.01),0.32(X2=635.65,P<0.01),经卡方检验均具有统计学意义,说明专家意见逐渐趋于一致.住宿场所卫生量化分级管理评分表共包括3项一级指标(卫生管理、卫生设施设备、卫生操作要求)和36项二级指标,3项一级指标的权重系数分别为0.35、0.34、0.31.结论 Delphi法可用于大范围专家意见咨询,解决住宿场所卫生量化分级评分表指标体系改进的问题.

The application of Delphi method in improving the score table for the hygienic quantifying and classification of hotels

Objective By means of Delphi method and expert panel consultations, to choose suitable indicators and improve the score table for classifying the hygienic condition of hotels so that it can be widely used at nationwide. Methods A two-round Delphi consultation was held to choose suitable indicators among 78 experts from 18 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The suitable indicators were selected according to the importance recognized by experts. Results The average length of service in public health of the experts was (21.08±5.78)years and the average coefficient of experts' authorities Cr was 0. 89±0. 07. The response rates of the two-round consultation were 98.72% (77/78) and 100.00% ( 77/77). The average feedback time were (8.49±4.48) d, (5.86±2.28) d, and the difference between two rounds was statistically significant (t=4.60, P<0.01). Kendall's coefficient were 0. 26 (X2 = 723.63, P< 0. 01),0.32(X2=635.65,P<0.01)and opinions among experts became consistent. The score table for the hygienic quantifying and classification of hotels was composed of three first-class indicators (hygienic management, hygienic facilities and hygienic practices ) and 36 second-class indicators. The weight coefficients of the three first-class indicators were 0. 35,0. 34,0. 31. Conclusion Delphi method might be used in a large-scale consultation among exports and be propitious to improve the score table for the hygienic quantifying and classification.