| 基于ARIMA乘积季节模型的科室级常规耗材需求量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 白玲,郭晓伟,马莉. 基于ARIMA乘积季节模型的科室级常规耗材需求量预测研究[J]. 中国医疗设备, 2021, 0(1): 123-126 |
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| 作者姓名： | 白玲 郭晓伟 马莉 |
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| 作者单位： | 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院采购中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京友谊医院科研启动基金资助项目(yyqdkt2017-39)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨季节性因素的时间序列分析方法在科室常规耗材库管理中的应用,分析和预测未来一段时间内医用常规耗材的使用需求.方法 采用整合移动平均自回归(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA)乘积季节模型对北京市某医院某科室某品牌注射器2014年1月至2018年12月的逐...
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 数据预测 常规医用耗材 整合移动平均自回归 乘积季节模型 |
Research on Demand Prediction of Regular Medical Consumables at Department Level Based on Multiple Seasonal ARIMA Model |
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| BAI Ling,GUO Xiaowei,MA Li. Research on Demand Prediction of Regular Medical Consumables at Department Level Based on Multiple Seasonal ARIMA Model[J]. Chinese medical equipment, 2021, 0(1): 123-126 |
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| Authors: | BAI Ling GUO Xiaowei MA Li |
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| Affiliation: | (Purchasing Center,Beijing Friendship Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100050,China) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To analyze and predict the demand of regular medical consumables in the future through application of time series analysis method of seasonal factors in the management of regular consumables in the department.Methods Multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the monthly usage of a brand syringe in a department of a hospital in Beijing from January 2014 to December 2018.Results The MAPE of ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model was 5.308,which controlled in tolerance interval,and the prediction result was close to the actual generated value.Conclusion ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model could accurately predict regular medical consumables in the short-term,and apply it to the hospital consumables management information system.The system realizes the reasonable control of the hospital consumables,and provide a reliable basis for funding budget applications. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis data prediction regular medical consumables multiple seasonal ARIMA model |
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