应用圆形分布法分析1951—2019年铜仁市疟疾发病季节特征

目的 分析1951—2019年铜仁市疟疾发病资料，探讨不同时期铜仁市疟疾发病季节变化规律，为消除疟疾后监测及防控提供借鉴依据和防治经验。方法 收集1951—2019年铜仁市疟疾发病资料，将疟疾发病数据分为7个阶段，应用圆形分布的理论和方法分析疟疾发病的季节性趋势，计算各阶段的发病高峰期。结果 1951—2019年铜仁市疟疾流行期从5月开始至10月结束；1951—2009年铜仁市疟疾发病存在集中趋势，发病高峰期集中在7—9月；2010年后疟疾发病不存在集中趋势，全年各月发病无较大差异，发病无显著峰值。结论 1951—2009年铜仁市疟疾发病存在季节性特征，集中在夏季发病；2010—2019年疟疾发病模式发生了改变，由本地病例逐渐转为输入性病例。

Analyzing seasonal characteristics of malaria incidence in Tongren from 1951 to 2019 based on circular distribution method

To analyze the malaria incidence data in Tongren City from 1951-2019 and explore its seasonal change pattern in different periods, and to provide reference and experience for post -elimination monitoring and prevention and control of malaria. Methods The malaria incidence data during 1951-2019 in Tongren were collected and divided into seven stages. Circular distribution method was used to analyze the seasonal trend of malaria incidence, and the peak incidence periods of each stage were calculated. Results From 1951 to 2019 in Tongren, the malaria epidemic period started from May and ended in October. From 1951 to 2009, there was a concentration trend of malaria incidence, and the peak period lasted from July to September. Since 2010, malaria incidence showed no trend of concentration, no significant difference was found between months, and no peak incidence was noted. Conclusion Seasonal characteristics of malaria incidence existed in Tongren City from 1951 to 2009, with incidence concentrated in summer; malaria incidence pattern changed from 2010 to 2019, with local cases gradually turning into imported cases.