2010—2017年厦门市肺癌发病趋势分析及预测

目的 分析2010—2017年厦门市肺癌发病率和发病趋势，预测2018—2020年肺癌发病率，为厦门市制定肺癌防治策略提供依据。方法 收集2010—2017年厦门市肿瘤登记报告的肺癌病例资料，计算肺癌发病率、中标率、世标率、累积发病率。采用Joint - point回归计算年度变化百分比（average annual percent change, APC），分析其变化趋势。采用灰色模型（grey model, GM）预测2018—2020年肺癌发病率。结果 2010—2017年厦门市肺癌粗发病率为66.05/10万，中标率为51.34/10万, 世标率为51.35/10万,0～64岁累积发病率为2.59%，0～74岁累积发病率为6.25%。2010—2017年厦门市肺癌粗发病率年均上升1.92%（t = 3.41,P＜0.05），其中女性年均上升5.74%（t = 5.68,P＜0.05），男性无变化趋势（t = 1.55,P＞0.05）。灰色模型预测结果显示，2018—2020年肺癌粗发病率分别为73.21/10万、75.19/10万、77.22/10万。结论 厦门市肺癌发病率水平较高，女性肺癌发病率上升明显。应采取有效肺癌防治措施。

Trend analysis and prediction of lung cancer incidence during 2010 and 2017 in Xiamen

Objective To analyze the incidence rate and trend of lung cancer in Xiamen from 2010 to 2017 and predict the incidence rate of lung cancer from 2018 to 2020, so as to provide reference for prevention and control strategy. Methods Data of lung cancer cases reported during 2010 and 2017 were obtained from Xiamen cancer registry. The incidence rate,age-standardized rates adjusted by China and world population, and cumulative rate were calculated. Annual percent change(APC) was calculated using Joint-point regression to analyze the trend, and Grey model(GM) was used to predict the lung cancer incidence from 2018 to 2020. Results The crude incidence, age-standardized incidence adjusted by China, and agestandardized incidence by world population were 66.05/105, 51.34/105, and 51.35/105, respectively. The cumulative incidence rate was 2.59% in people under 64 years old and 6.25% in people under 74 years old, respectively. During 2010 and 2017,the lung cancer incidence rose by 1.92%(t=3.41, P<0.05). In terms of gender, incidence of females saw an increase of 5.74%(t=5.68, P<0.05) while there was no significant change trend in males(t=1.55, P>0.05). Grey model prediction demonstrated that the crude lung cancer incidence from 2018 to 2020 were 73.21/105, 75.19/105, and 77.22/105, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of lung cancer is relatively high in Xiamen, and incidence among females shows a notable rising trend.Effective prevention and control measures should be carried out.