石家庄市PM2.5浓度对居民死亡的急性影响分析

目的 了解石家庄市PM2.5污染特征及其对居民死亡率的影响。方法 收集2013 - 2015年该市逐日大气PM2.5浓度、平均气温、平均相对湿度和居民的死亡数据，利用广义相加模型分析PM2.5日均浓度和居民死亡的关系。结果 研究期间石家庄市日均非意外死亡32人，其中循环系统疾病死亡17人，呼吸系统疾病死亡5人；PM2.5浓度范围为6.3～771.3 μg/m3，平均浓度为118.8 μg/m3。时间序列分析结果表明，该市大气PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3，居民非意外总死亡（lag05）、循环系统疾病死亡（lag05）和呼吸系统疾病死亡（lag1）的风险分别增加0.73%（95%CI:0.42%～1.04%）、1.04%（95%CI:0.64%～1.46%）和0.63%（95%CI:0.07%～1.19%）。结论 石家庄市大气PM2.5浓度的升高可能导致居民非意外总死亡，尤其是循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡的增加。

Analysis on the acute effects of PM2.5 pollutants concentration on mortality of residents in Shijiazhuang

Objective To describe the characteristics of ambient PM2.5 pollution and its association with mortality in Shijiazhuang. Methods The PM2.5 concentrations, meteorological data (daily mean temperature and relative humidity) and mortality data from 2013 to 2015 were collected. Generalized additive model was used to analyze the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and the total non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases mortalities. Results During the study period, about 32 people died for non-accidental disease, which included 17 for cardiovascular diseases and 5 for respiratory diseases. The daily PM2.5 concentration ranges from 6.3 to 771.3 μg/m3, and the average concentration were 118.8 μg/m3. Time series analysis showed that an increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5 could increase the non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality by 0.73% (95%CI:0.42%-1.04%), 1.04% (95%CI:0.64%-1.46%) and 0.63%(95%CI:0.07%-1.19%), respectively. Conclusion The ambient PM2.5 concentration might significantly increase the mortality risk of certain diseases, particularly cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.