Ten-year follow-up for male twins divided into high- or low-risk groups for ischemic heart disease based on risk factors measured 25 years previously

PURPOSE: To undertake medical follow-up in white males in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) twin study, previously divided on the basis of cardiovascular disease risk factors. METHODS: Tree structured survival analysis (TSSA) used at a mean age of 63 years to classify twins into high and low risk subgroups for ischemic heart disease (IHD) found that subjects at a mean age of 48 years were at highest risk with high systolic blood pressures and low high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Low risk subjects had lower blood pressures, better pulmonary function tests, and a negative family history for IHD or low post load plasma glucose levels. Medical record review was performed ten years later at the 4th Examination of the NHLBI twin cohort conducted in 1995-1997. RESULTS: The percentage of men in the NHLBI twin study who died nearly tripled (from 9.3% to 25.8%) in the ten-year period between the ages of 63 and 73 years. Deaths have tended to remain higher in DZ than MZ twins (27.8% versus 23.7%). At Exam 4, the relative risk of IHD (fatal or non-fatal) was 5.24 times higher for those in the high risk group than those in the low risk class (95% confidence limit 2.72-10.07, p < 0.0001 and 5.86 for any cardiovascular disease (95% confidence limit 3.03-11.33). The proportion of deaths from IHD in subjects with a high risk profile at entry was 51.7%, and 70.0% had died from all cardiovascular related disease. CONCLUSION: The present results indicate TSSA remained effective in classifying subjects into subgroups with greater risk of morbidity and mortality related to cardiovascular disease after ten additional years.