2007—2021年江苏省南京市肝癌死亡趋势分析及其对期望寿命的影响

摘 要：［目的］ 分析江苏省南京市2007—2021年肝癌死亡率变化趋势及肝癌死亡对期望寿命变化的影响。［方法］ 利用南京市死因监测系统收集的2007—2021年户籍人口肝癌死亡资料计算死亡率，运用简略寿命表和去死因寿命表计算期望寿命、去死因期望寿命（CELE）、去死因期望寿命增长年（PGLEs），采用Joinpoint 4.6.0.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），采用Arriaga分解法估计各年龄组肝癌死亡率变化对期望寿命变化的影响。［结果］ 2007—2021年南京市肝癌标化死亡率整体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-6.20%，P＜0.01）。南京市居民期望寿命从2007年的76.88岁增长到2021年84.07岁，增长了7.19岁。南京市肝癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长起到了“正向作用”，贡献了0.35岁，占期望寿命增长的4.87%。除1~4岁、10~14岁年龄组对期望寿命增长呈“负向贡献”外（1~4岁：-0.002岁，10~14岁：-0.001岁），其他各年龄组均呈现“正向贡献”，其中对期望寿命正向贡献最大的是50~54岁年龄组（0.060岁）。肝癌CELE增长了7.06岁（AAPC=0.65%，P＜0.01），PGLEs减少了0.13年（AAPC=-1.94%，P＜0.01），寿命损失率下降38.18%（AAPC=-2.65%，P＜0.01）。［结论］ 2007—2021年南京市肝癌标化死亡率下降，肝癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长起到积极作用，因肝癌导致的寿命损失下降。

Analysis of Liver Cancer Mortality Trend and Its Impact on Life Expectancy in Nanjing of Jiangsu from 2007 to 2021

Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the change trends of liver cancer mortality in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021 and its impact on life expectancy. ［Methods］ Based on the data of national cause-of-death surveillance， the mortality of liver cancer in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021 was analyzed. Life table and cause-eliminated life table were applied to calculate life expectancy， cause eliminated life expectancy (CELE) and potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs). Software Joinpoint 4.6.0.0 was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Arriaga’s decomposition method was used to estimate the contribution of the changes of liver cancer mortality to life expectancy by age groups. ［Results］ From 2007 to 2021， the standardized mortality of liver cancer in Nanjing showed a downward trend (AAPC=-6.20%， P＜0.01). The life expectancy of Nanjing residents increased from 76.88 years in 2007 to 84.07 years in 2021； the changes of liver cancer mortality contributed 0.35 years to the life expectancy growth with a contribution degree of 4.87%. The decrease of liver cancer mortality had positive contribution to the life expectancy growth in all other age groups except 1~4 and 10~14 age groups， and that in the 50~54 age group had the greatest positive contribution to life expectancy (0.060 years). The CELE of liver cancer increased by 7.06 years (AAPC=0.65%， P＜0.01)， the PGLEs decreased by 0.13 years (AAPC=-1.49%， P＜0.01)， and life loss rate decreased by 38.18% (AAPC=-2.65%， P＜0.01). ［Conclusion］ From 2007 to 2021， the standardized mortality rate and the life loss caused by liver cancer in Nanjing decreased gradually， contributing to the growth of life expectancy.