近视发展预测模型相关研究进展

近视是导致视觉障碍的重要原因之一，随着全球范围内近视患病率的迅速攀升，近视已成为全球重大公共卫生问题。由于近视呈低龄化趋势，准确预测近视的发生及进展有助于对近视高危人群和儿童青少年近视患者进行有针对性的干预，以延缓近视的发生或减缓近视进展程度。近些年来，基于基线期眼部生物测量数据、屈光状态、环境因素、遗传因素、生活行为方式等循证医学证据制定的多种近视预测模型陆续被建立。基因-环境相互作用在近视病因学中的作用已被证实，随着基因学研究手段的不断创新，未来具有更高预测效能的特异性基因也将被应用于近视发展的预测及防控。文章对这些近视发展预测模型的内容、实用性、研究进展等进行了综述，以期为儿童青少年近视的防控提供参考依据和指导。

Research progress on prediction models for myopia development

Myopia is one of the leading causes of visual impairment and has become a major global public health concern with the rapidly increasing prevalence worldwide. Due to the trend of myopia towards younger age groups, accurate prediction of the occurrence and progression of myopia could help to provide targeted interventions for high-risk population and myopia patients in children and adolescents, in order to delay myopia onset or slow myopia progression. In recent years, various myopia prediction models have been built based on evidence-based medicine such as baseline ocular biometric data, refractive status, environment factors, genetic factors, and lifestyle have been established. The interaction of genetic and environmental effects on etiology of myopia have been established, with the continuous innovation of genetic research methods, specific genes with higher predictive power in the future will also be applied in the prediction, prevention and control of myopia. This article summarize the content, performance and research progress of myopia prediction models, which could serve as a useful reference and guidance for the prevention and control of myopia in children and adolescents.