捕获-标记-再捕获法在出生缺陷监测系统评估中的应用

目的 了解和评估现行的医院出生缺陷监测系统和人群出生缺陷监测系统的监测效率.方法 以湖南省某县2006年10月1日至12月31日人群出生缺陷监测数据作为第一来源资料,以同时期当地医院出生缺陷监测数据作为第二来源资料,利用捕获-标记-再捕获法(CMR)进行评价.结果 人群监测系统发现缺陷儿49例,医院监测系统发现缺陷儿28例,重复病例为20例;根据CMR法的计算公式,该县2006年10月1日至12月31日出生缺陷总体估计值为68例(N=68),95%CI:56～70;人群监测系统和医院监测系统的符合率分别为72.1%和41.2%,总符合率为83.8%,两种监测系统来源相互之间的符合率为57.1%;漏报率分别为27.9%与58.8%.结论 人群出生缺陷监测系统和医院出生缺陷监测系统均存在一定的漏报情况,可应用CMR法尽可能的校正.

Application of capture-mark-recapture method on evaluating the abilities of birth defects surveillance systems

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the abilities of population-based birth defects surveillance system (PBBDSS) and hospital-based birth defects surveillance system(HBBDSS). METHODS: We used capture-mark-recapture method(CMR) to analyze the data of the two kinds of birth defects surveillance systems from 1 Oct. 2006 to 31 Dec. 2006 in a county of Hunan province. Data from PBBDSS were defined as the first source and data from HBBDSS were defined as the second source. RESULTS: 49 and 28 birth defect cases were found from PBBDSS and from HBBDSS respectively. Among these cases, 20 were marked. With the method of CMR, the estimated birth defects cases were 68 (95% CI: 56-70). The coincident rates of PBBDSS and HBBDSS were 72.1% and 41.2%, while the total coincident rates was 83.8% and the coincident rates from different sources was 57.1%. The unreported rates of PBBDSS and HBBDSS were 27.9% and 58.8%. CONCLUSION: Not only the HBBDSS but also the PBBDSS appeared to have had high unreported rates, suggesting that we could use CMR to adjust the rate of birth defects from the birth defects surveillance data.