Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: Impact of trends in obesity and diabetes |
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| Institution: | 1. Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Level 4, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia;2. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 5, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia;3. The George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, Level 10, King George V Building, 83-117 Missenden Rd, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia;4. The George Institute for Global Health, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK;5. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA;6. School of Health and Social Development, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood 3125, Australia;1. Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, United States;2. Center for Healthcare Studies, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States;3. School of Medicine of the University of São Paulo, Department of Preventive Medicine, São Paulo, SP, Brazil;4. Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares Carlos III (CNIC), Madrid, Spain;5. Univ. Lille, Inserm, CHU Lille, U995 LIRIC - Lille Inflammation Research International Center, F-59000 Lille, France;6. Centre d''Investigation Clinique, CIC-1403-Inserm-CH&U, Lille, F-59037 France;7. Preventive Medicine & Nutrition Unit, University of Crete School of Medicine, Heraklion, Crete, Greece;8. Department of Paediatrics, Medical Faculty, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary;9. Department of Public Health, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium;10. Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Harokopio University, Athens, Greece;11. Department of Pediatrics, Private Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria;12. Polytechnic University of Madrid, Health and Human Performance, Madrid, Spain;13. Agricultural Research Council, Food and Nutrition Research Centre (CRA-NUT), Rome, Italy |
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| Abstract: | ObjectiveWe aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians.MethodsWe analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45–64 years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n = 2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach.ResultsWe estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74 years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%).ConclusionsWe demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55–74 years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries. |
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