应用EPP模型及Workbook方法短期预测成都市艾滋病疫情

目的对成都市各高危人群艾滋病感染率进行短期预测,为进一步采取防治干预措施提供参考意见。方法分别采用EPP模型、Workbook方法对2008～2010年成都市高危人群艾滋病感染率进行短期预测,并采用有关统计预测指标对回代拟合效果和预测效果进行比较评价。结果两种方法残差均较小,EPP模型平均为-0.0425%,Workbook方法平均为-0.0006%,回代拟合效果均较好,后者效果稍优于前者;对2008～2010年预测显示,两种方法预测3年内各人群HIV感染率均呈上升趋势,EPP模型预测结果较Workbook方法保守。结论成都市仍将处于艾滋病传播的危险时期,吸毒人群仍将是成都市艾滋病感染的主要人群。同时,由于性传播的比例将会上升,因此,应加大性传播涉及的高危人群的干预力度。

Application of EPP model and Workbook method to short-term forecast of AIDS epidemic situation in Chengdu City

Objective To perform a short-term forecast of AIDS infection rates among high-risk groups in Chengdu City,and to provide a reference for further intervention measures of prevention and treatment of AIDS.Methods The AIDS infection rates among high-risk groups in Chengdu City from 2008 to 2010 were forecasted with EPP model and Workbook method,respectively.Then their back substitution fitting effects and forecast effects were evaluated and compared by relative statistical predictors.Results Both EPP model and Workbook method had a small residual error that was-0.0425% and-0.0006%,respectively.Moreover,both methods showed good back substitution fitting effects and forecast effects,but the latter was slightly better than the former.Both methods forecasted that the AIDS infection rate in each high-risk group had a rising trend in 2008-2010,and EPP model predicted a more conservative result.Conclusion Chengdu City will remain at the risk of HIV spreading period,and drug users will still be the main group with AIDS infection.Furthermore,the intervention measures for sexual transmission-involved high-risk group should be strengthened due to a predicted increasing proportion of sexual transmission.