脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型——指数曲线Y=ae~(bx)的模拟

脑血管病的死亡率有随年龄增长而升高的趋势。我们用指数指线y=ae~(bx)对几个人群的资料进行了数学模拟,建立了脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的数学模型。该模型不仅可以阐明一个人群脑血管病死亡率年龄分布的规律,而且也可用其微分方程计算脑血管病死亡率随年龄增长的速率,以及这种增长速率随年龄组而增长的“增长倍数常数”。这两个数值均可能成为新的比较不同地区脑血管病危害程度和分布规律的指标。此外,该模型也可用于预测脑血管病和评价脑血管病防治措施的效果。

THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MORTALITY OF CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE. The Analogy of the Exponential Curve, Y = aebx

There is a tendency that the mortality of cerebrovascular disease increases with age.The data from several communities was mathematically analogized, and the mathematical model of age distribution of cerebrovascular disease mortality was establishedby using the exponential curve, Y = aebx .The model gives an account of the law ofage distribution of cerebrovascular disease mortality.The increment rate and"the increment multiple constant"of the increment rate of cerebrovascular disease mortality withage are calculated by using its differential equation, dy/dx =abebx. The two numeralsmay be used as indexes for comparison with risk degree and distribution law of cerebrovascular disease among several communities.In addition, the model may be used to predict cerebrovascular disease mortality and to evaluate the effect of preventive and curative measures for cerebrovascular disease.