GM（1，1）模型在我国肺结核发病率预测中的应用

目的探索肺结核的发病规律，合理预测肺结核的发病率，为卫生部门制定相应的防治策略提供理论依据。方法根据国家卫生部（（2007年统计年鉴》中1998--2006年肺结核的发病率资料，采用GM（1，1）模型预测2007～2009年的肺结核发病率。结果建立的GM（1，1）模型精度指标后验差比值C为0．3112，小误差概率P=1，该模型为一级模型，拟合效果较理想。结论预测2007年、2008年、2009年的发病率分别为114．1854／10万、131．4256／10万、151．1748／10万，发病率很高，提示卫生管理部门应加强肺结核的防治工作。

Application of GM(1,1) on forecasting the incidence of tuberculosis in China

Objective To explore the changing trend and forecast the incidence of tuberculosis,it will provide the theoretical foundation for department of epidemic prevention. Methods According the data of 《 Statistical Yearbook 2007》 of our country about the incidence of tuberculosis during 1998-2006, GM （ 1,1 ） was used to forecast the incidence of tuberculosis during 2007-2009. Results The prognosticating precision of GM （ 1,1 ） （,） was eligible in accordance with the criterion of Grey model prognostication assessment, the fitting effect is ideal. Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis during 2007-2009 will be 114. 185 4,131. 425 6,151. 174 8, the high incidence indicates that the department of epidemic prevention should enhance the prevention and control of tuberculosis.