用形态发育指标预测月经初潮年龄的研究──Cox线性Logistic模型的应用

本文利用435名青春期少女6～14岁生长发育纵向调查资料，研究身体形态发育水平及发育速度与月经初潮年龄的关系，并用Cox线性Logistic模型，对用反映形态发育水平及发育速度的指标进行月经初潮年龄的预测方法研究．入选模型对预测有显著贡献的因素为：年龄、该年龄时的瘦体重、该年龄小一岁到该年龄时的瘦体重增长量、该年龄小二岁到该年龄小一岁时的瘦体重增长量等4项指标．该模型预测符合率较高．达87.0％，故有一定实用价值．

Prediction of Age of Menarche from Indices of Morphological Development: Application of Cox's Logistic Model

Based on the growth date of 435 adolescent girls aged from 6 to 14 years from a longitudinal study. the relationship between the level and speed of morphological development and the age of menarche was studied . and a method for prediction of the age of menarche from the indices of morphological development was probed by Cox's linear logistic model. The indices chosen into the model and being of signification statistically were age. lean body mass at the age. increment of lean body mass during the last year before the age and increment of lean body mass during the year be fore last. Girls predicted correct1y by the model accounted for 87.0%, so the model is of practical use.