| 流感监测预警曲线的测定及应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 范苏云,黄慈林,石向辉,刘莹,刘小敏. 流感监测预警曲线的测定及应用[J]. 现代预防医学, 2012, 39(3): 706-707 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 范苏云 黄慈林 石向辉 刘莹 刘小敏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 深圳市福田区疾病预防控制中心,深圳,518040 |
| |
| 摘 要： | [目的]利用已有的流感监测数据制定福田区流感监测基线和预警曲线,进行早期预测。[方法]采用2005～2009年两所医院的流感样病例百分比监测数据(ILI%),通过统计分析制定基线和预警曲线。[结果]福田区流感基线值为4.10%,预警值为7.95%,警戒曲线反映的异常波动与2010年实际的暴发疫情及病原分离结果相一致。[结论]福田区的流感监测预警曲线具有较好的灵敏性和准确性,能对流感疫情进行早期预警。
|
| 关 键 词： | 流感 监测 预警 |
DETERMINATION AND APPLICATION OF EARLY WARNING CURVE BASED ON INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE |
| |
| Affiliation: | FAN Su-yun,HUANG Ci-lin,SHI Xiang-hui,et al.(Futian Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518040,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | [Objective]To build the early warning curve based on influenza surveillance data of Futian.[Methods]According to the weekly influenza-like illness consultation rate(ILI%)of two sentinel hospitals in Futian from 2005 to 2009.Analyzed the results,made the baseline and early warning curve of influenza.[Results]The baseline value of Futian was 4.10%,and the warning value was 7.95%.The simulative early warning signal was approximately consistent with the actual results of isolation and outbreak in 2010.[Conclusion]The early warning curve of influenza has a high sensitivity and accuracy,and it can be early warning of influenza outbreaks. |
| |
| Keywords: | Influenza Surveillance Early warning |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
