| Abstract: | Many field studies of human helminth infections have reported a positive correlation between parasite burdens and the rate of re-establishment of infection following chemotherapy, i.e., predisposition. Some studies have also reported the relationships between re-establishment and exposure and immune responses. The interpretation of these data is made difficult by the complexity of the underlying immunoepidemiological processes. In this paper, simple mathematical models are used to explore expected patterns, especially in relation to host age. These patterns are determined by rates of infection, parasite life expectancy, the level of immunological responsiveness, the duration of immunological memory, and may be greatly affected by the immunogenic roles of different parasite stages. In general, acquired immunity is predicted to reduce the degree of predisposition. This reduction is age-dependent and may generate ‘negative predisposition’ in some age classes. Age-dependent reductions in the correlation between re-establishment and exposure are also predicted. The correlation between re-establishment and protective immune responses is also predicted to be age-dependent, but may remain positive for all ages despite significant acquired immunity. The results suggest that great care is needed in the interpretation of immunoepidemiological data from treatment-reinfection studies. |
