儿童哮喘风险评分与哮喘预测指数用于预测反复喘息幼儿发生哮喘的临床研究

目的 探讨儿童哮喘风险评分（PARS）和哮喘预测指数（API）对反复喘息幼儿发生支气管哮喘（哮喘）的预测价值,为儿童哮喘的精准预测提供充分的证据。方法 收集100例1~3岁反复喘息儿童的临床资料,分别进行PARS和API评估,随访观察患儿是否发生哮喘,比较两者单独或联合应用的预测效能。结果 PARS预测反复喘息幼儿发生哮喘的灵敏度和特异度分别为54.55%和86.52%,ROC AUC为0.744 （95% CI 0.578~0.909）。API预测反复喘息幼儿发生哮喘的灵敏度和特异度分别为72.73%和52.81%,ROC曲线下面积为0.628（95% CI 0.460~0.796）。两者联合预测反复喘息幼儿发生哮喘的灵敏度和特异度分别为81.82%和44.94%,ROC曲线下面积为0.634（95% CI 0.474~0.794）。PARS预测反复喘息幼儿发生哮喘的ROC AUC略高于API及联合检测,但组间比较差异均无统计学意义（P均>0.05）。结论 PARS和API用于预测反复喘息幼儿发生哮喘的临床价值相当。

Pediatric asthma risk score and asthma prediction index in risk prediction of asthma in recurrent wheezing children

Objective To evaluate the value of pediatric asthma risk score （PARS） and asthma predictive index （API） in predicting the risk of asthma in children with recurrent wheezing, aiming to provide sufficient evidence for accurate prediction of pediatric asthma. Methods Clinical data of 100 children with recurrent wheezing, aged 1 to 3 years old, were collected. PARS and API were assessed. The incidence of asthma was observed during follow-up. The prediction efficiency of PARS, API or two combined was statistically compared. Results The sensitivity and specificity of PARS in predicting asthma in children with recurrent wheezing were 54.55% and 86.52%, and the area under the receiver operating curve （AUC） was calculated as 0.744 （95%CI 0.578-0.909）, 72.73%, 52.81% and 0.628 for API （95%CI 0.460-0.796）, and 81.82%, 44.94% and 0.634 for PARS combined with API （95%CI 0.474-0.794）, respectively. The AUC of PARS was slightly higher compared with those of API and two combined, whereas no statistical significance was found among these three groups （both P > 0.05）. Conclusions PARS and API have clinical value in predicting the risk of asthma in children with recurrent wheezing.