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| 恶性肿瘤死亡率预测模型的探讨 | |
| 引用本文： | 韩兢 李会庆. 恶性肿瘤死亡率预测模型的探讨[J]. 中国卫生统计, 1998, 15(5): 5-8 |
| 作者姓名： | 韩兢 李会庆 |
| 作者单位： | 山东医科大学卫生统计教研室，山东医学科学院基础所 |
| 摘 要： | 目的：探讨恶性肿瘤死亡率的预测模型。方法：利用山东省某县１９年恶性肿瘤死亡率资料，进行１０种单一模型及组合模型的拟合并进行预测。结果：（１）用同种单一模型对不同肿瘤死亡率进行预测是不合理的；（２）不同模型对同一肿瘤死亡率的预测结果有差异。结论：组合模型避免了单一模型的片面性，可用于恶性肿瘤死亡率的预测。 |
| 关 键 词： | 数学模型 统计预测 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 |
An Inquiry of the Forecast Model of Malignant Tumor Mortality |
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| Han Jing,et al.. An Inquiry of the Forecast Model of Malignant Tumor Mortality[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 1998, 15(5): 5-8 | |
| Authors: | Han Jing et al. |
| Abstract: | Objective:to inquire into forecasting models of malignant tumor mortality Methods:Utilizing the tumor mortality data during 19 years in a certain county of Shandong Province,we simulate ten kinds of single models and combined model for forcasting.Result:(1)It is unreasonable to forecast different tumor mortality by the same single model;(2)The results of different single models to forecast the same tumor mortality are also various.Conclusion:Combined model can be used to forecast the malignant tumor mortality,avoiding the one-sidedness of single models. |
| Keywords: | Mathematical model Statistical forecast Malignant tumor Mortality |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ | |