用乘数法估计株洲市区吸毒人群的研究

目的科学估计株洲市吸毒人群基数,为掌握此人群中HIV/AIDS流行状况和防治对策提供依据.方法应用两种乘数法对株洲市城区吸毒人群基数进行估计.结果公安部门估计吸毒人群4 083人,吸毒率0.54%,乘数法1估计吸毒人群2 879人,吸毒率0.37%,乘数法2估计吸毒人群3 255人,吸毒率0.42%.乘数法1和乘数法2估计数无显著性差异,公安部门估计数过高.结论乘数法可很好地估计吸毒人员基数.

Estimation of Baseline Number of Drug Users in Zhuzhou City by a Multiplier Method

Objective To estimate the baseline number of drug users in Zhuzhou and provide evidence to understand the HIV/AIDS prevalence among drug users for prevention and control. Methods Two multiplier methods were used to estimate the number of drug users. ResultS The estimated number of drug users by Public Security Bureau was 4 083, and the prevalence was 0.54%.The estimated number of drug users from multiplier method 1 was 2 879 , the prevalence was 0.37% and the multiplier method 2 was 3 255, the prevalence was 0.42%.There were no difference between both multiplier method 1 and 2. But the estimated number by Public Security Bureau was higher than both multiplier methods. Conclusion The multiplier method is a good method for estimating the drug users number and prevalence.