| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Neurosurgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;2. McKenna EpiLog Fellowship in Population Health, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Department of Mathematics, The West Chester Statistical Institute, West Chester University, West Chester, Pennsylvania;3. Department of Mathematics, The West Chester Statistical Institute, West Chester University, West Chester, Pennsylvania;4. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania |
| Abstract: | The LACE+ (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and Emergency department visits in the past 6 months) risk-prediction tool has never been tested in an orthopedic surgery population. LACE+ may help physicians more effectively identify and support high-risk orthopedics patients after hospital discharge. LACE+ scores were retrospectively calculated for all consecutive orthopedic surgery patients (n = 18 893) at a multi-center health system over 3 years (2016-2018). Coarsened exact matching was employed to create “matched” study groups with different LACE+ score quartiles (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4). Outcomes were compared between quartiles. In all, 1444 patients were matched between Q1 and Q4 (n = 2888); 2079 patients between Q2 and Q4 (n = 4158); 3032 patients between Q3 and Q4 (n = 6064). Higher LACE+ scores significantly predicted 30D readmission risk for Q4 vs Q1 and Q4 vs Q3 (P < .001). Larger LACE+ scores also significantly predicted 30D risk of ED visits for Q4 vs Q1, Q4 vs Q2, and Q4 vs Q3 (P < .001). Increased LACE+ score also significantly predicted 30D risk of reoperation for Q4 vs Q1 (P = .018), Q4 vs Q2 (P < .001), and Q4 vs Q3 (P < .001). |
