门脉高压症门-奇联合断流术预后的多因素分析

本文对85例门-奇联合断流术后出现的各种并发症和术前检查的12个变量进行多因素分析。选入4个有显著意义的变量,分别为年龄、血浆白蛋白、凝血酶原时间和手术时机选择?建立了判断门脉高压症断流术预后的最优回归方程式。经回代检验,判断预后的准确率较高。当判断界值小于0.5时,术后不发生并发症的概率为91%,当大于0.5时,术后发生并发症的概率为77.5%。随着判断界值的增大,术后并发症发生比率和严重程度也增加。该方程计算简单,可作为术前选择病例的标准。

Analysis of Multifactors for Predicting Postoperative Complications in the Treatment of Portal Hypertension with Esophageal Varicose Bleeding by Portazygos Disconnection

Analysis of multivariables was proceeded from 85 patients treated by portazygos disconnection for bleeding esophageal varices.12 variables were chosen before operation.Including four significant factors,such as age,serum albumin, prothrombin time and operative time(emergency or elective),they were assessed by optimum regression equation,probability value of 0.5 was a cutpoint,patient with this value or less than that would have 91% chance of uneventful postoperative course.Those with a probability value above 0.5 would had at least 77.5% chanee of complications after operation.Moreover,the greater was the probability value,the more frequent and serious postoperative complications would happen.This equati- on is simple and able to predict prognosis accurately,and it may be a good crite- rion in selecting patients for operation.