2005-2010年中国城市居民期望寿命趋势分析

 目的 了解中国城市男女期望寿命的现状,分析期望寿命受年龄和死因影响的不同变化,探讨哪个年龄组、何种死因是导致我国近5年期望寿命变化的主要因素。方法利用2005-2010年《中国卫生统计年鉴》中中国城市居民年龄别死亡率及死因别死亡率等数据,采用绘制寿命表法、期望寿命上升下降增减差异的年龄分解和死因分解法,进行城市居民期望寿命差异的分析比较。结果 2005-2010年中国城市的期望寿命不断上升,2005年为76.57岁,2008年达到峰值,为80.03岁。2005-2010年中国城市的居民死亡主要是循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤及呼吸系统疾病造成的。在所有年龄组中,2005-2006年期望寿命的快速提高主要由55~85岁居民期望寿命的提高所引起;2008-2009年,期望寿命下降0.49岁,主要是因80岁以上、尤其是85岁以上老人期望寿命下降所致。从病因别分析,2005-2008年,期望寿命3年内增加3.46岁,主要是循环系统疾病对于期望寿命作用的快速增加(2.15岁,62.14%),其次为呼吸系统疾病和损伤中毒等外部原因,分别导致期望寿命上升0.75岁(21.68%)和0.64岁(18.50%)。肿瘤对期望寿命增长的作用为0.28岁(8.09%),传染病为0.06岁(1.73%)。2008-2010年,期望寿命在2年内下降了1.94岁,主要是循环系统疾病的作用(1.22岁,62.89%)。结论 针对循环系统疾病的危险因素,尽早采取干预措施,大力宣传戒烟、减少肥胖、提倡健康生活方式、预防糖尿病和高血压,将有助于期望寿命的进一步提高。呼吸系统疾病是影响期望寿命的第二大因素,肺炎对于期望寿命的影响始终为负作用,建议在5岁内的婴幼儿和儿童以及65岁以上的老年人等发病高危人群中接种肺炎疫苗,可有效提高机体的免疫力,减少肺炎发病,降低影响期望寿命的负面因素。

The trends of life expectancy for Chinese urban citizens during 2005-2010

ObjectiveTo analyze the trends of life expectancy in Chinese cities during 2005-2010,so as to explore the age-specific and cause-specific contributions to  life expectancy. Methods Life expectancy data and age-specific mortality rate data were obtained from the year book Annual Statistics of Public Health in China.The difference in life expectancy was analyzed by decomposition methods,including age-specific decomposition and cause-specific decomposition.Results Life expectancy of Chinese urban citizens kept rising during 2005-2010.Chinese urban citizens had an average life expectancy of  76.57 years in 2005,and reached its peak of 80.03 years in 2008.The main causes of death in Chinese cities during 2005-2010 were circulatory diseases,cancers and respiratory diseases.The age-specific results showed that of the total increase of life expectancy,mortality changes in 55-85 age group was the largest contribution.The cause-specific results showed that the total life expectancy increased by 3.46 years within 3 years (62.14%) during 2005-2008,mostly due to the improvement of circulatory diseases.Life expectancy was elevated by 0.75,0.64,0.28 and 0.06 years as a result of the reduction of respiratory disease,external causes including injury and poison,cancer and infectious disease,respectively.Between 2008 and 2010,life expectancy decreased by 1.94 years within 2 years,1.22 years (62.98%) of which was due to circulatory diseases.Conclusions Public health intervention such as giving up smoking,reducing obesity and living in a healthy lifestyle to reduce the risk of circulatory diseases could prevent the incidence of diabetes and high blood pressure,which could further increase the life expectancy.Immunization on infants under 5 years and the elders above 65 years are suggested to lower the negative effects of pneumonia on life expectancy for Chinese urban citizens.