国际邮轮传染病疫情事件风险识别与评估报告

目的通过对国际邮轮传染病疫情开展风险评估与识别,为实施国际邮轮卫生检疫风险管理和制定传染病疫情控制策略提供科学依据。方法采用危险因素评估法、风险矩阵法和德尔斐（Delphi）评价法,通过相关领域专家调查问卷形式,对国际邮轮传染病疫情事件开展风险识别与评估。结果霍乱和肉毒毒素中毒为极严重的风险,包括诺如病毒和甲型H1N1流感在内的等19类疾病为高危险度风险,隐孢子虫等4种疾病为中危险度风险。结论明确了国际邮轮各种传染病等相关事件的主要风险,找出了风险控制的关键点,为有针对性进行技术储备和建立一套系统完善的国际邮轮疫情防控体系奠定了基础。

Report on the risk identification and assessment of infectious disease

Objective To provide a scientific basis for the risk management of quarantine of international cruise and control of the infectious diseases. Methods Expert survey was used to collect infectious diseases information. The methods of Risk factors assessment, risk matrix and Delphi evaluation were used for data analysis, risks identification and assessment. Results Cholera and Botulinum toxin were the most serious risks, while 19 kinds of high-risk diseases including Norovirus and novel influenza A（H1N1） and 4 kinds of medium risk diseases such as Cryptosporidium were assessed. Conclusion The main risk of infectious diseases event on international cruise was recognized and the key point of risk control was found, which are the foundation of technical reserves and a system for of infectious diseases prevention on international cruise.