用捕获-再捕获法对河南省淮滨县疟疾流行情况的研究

目的]掌握豫南淮滨县的疟疾实际发病情况，分析评估流行现状。方法]采取不等比例分层随机抽样方法，逐户调查疟疾发病情况，采用捕获—再捕获法（Capture re-capture method，CRM）估计、分析全县疟疾实际发病率和漏报率。结果]调查3个乡9个村，访问居民4801人，查出疟疾病例109例，调查发病率2．27％；用CRM法处理后，估计全县疟疾发病率为2．44％，估计漏报率89．7％。结论]该县的疟疾估计发病率约为2．44％，呈局部暴发流行态势，且漏报严重。在传染源漏报严重的地区，CRM是开展漏报调查的好方法。但应用时要注意保证两次捕获的随机和独立性，调查点的选择应根据发病率的高、低多级分层抽取，数据方可具有科学性和代表性。

Study on Current Malaria Incidence by Capture and Re-capture Method in Huaibin County, Henan

Objective] To investigate and evaluate actual malaria incidence in Huaibin County,the southern part of Henan,China.Methods] Malaria incidence was surveyed over family-to-family by stratified random sampling method. Actual malaria incidence and rate of missing report were estimated by Capture-re-capture method (CRM).Results] 4 801 residents in 9 villages of 3 townships were investigated.109 cases were found and malaria incidence was 2.27%.Malaria incidence estimated by CRM method was 2.44% and estimate ratio of missing report was 89.7%.Conclusion] Estimate malaria incidence was 2.44% in Huaibin County.The malaria showed local epidemic trend and high missing report.CRM can be considered as a good method for surveillance of missing report and the scientific stratified random sampling should be used for the field survey.