广东省疟疾控制后期流行趋势预测研究

目的预测广东省疟疾控制后期流行趋势,为广东省实施全省消除疟疾项目提供依据。方法连续对本地、外地居民进行病原和抗体水平监测,结合媒介按蚊叮人率监测结果,计算疟疾阳性率和平均接种率,然后根据中小学生抗体水平、原虫阳性率和平均接种率对广东省的疟疾趋势进行预测。结果 2000-2009年共血检1894774人,检出疟疾阳性2832人,平均阳性率为0.15%。通过病例地域分析,67.97%的病例分布在珠三角8个地级市,各年疟疾阳性率呈逐年下降趋势。2000-2009年共捕获各种按蚊3679只,平均叮人率为0.65只/人工小时,其中中华按蚊平均叮人率为0.43只/人工小时,平均接种率为0.0006;微小按蚊平均叮人率为0.10只/人工小时,平均接种率为0.0002;嗜人按蚊平均叮人率为0.001只/人工小时,平均接种率为0.00001;日月潭按蚊平均叮人率为0.001只/人工小时,平均接种率为0.000001。2000-2009年共检测不同市县中小学生10652人,疟疾抗体全为阴性。结论广东省疟疾疫情和媒介按蚊叮人率总体呈逐年下降趋势,各种传疟按蚊的平均接种率极低,不足以引起广东省疟疾暴发流行。中小学生疟疾抗体10年检测阳性率均为0,说明疟疾在广东省的流行已阻断和得到控制,主要继续加强疟疾监测,在广东实现全省基本消除疟疾的目标是可行的。

Prevalence of Malaria at the Later Stage of Disease Control in Guangdong Province

Objective To perform epidemiological study of malaria in later controlling period in Guangdong,and to provide scientisific basis for the eradication of malaria in the whole province.Methods The disease monitoring was achieved through the continuously monitor of the pathogens and the level of antibodies of local and foreign residents,vaccination rate and the frequency of mosqiuto bite.The levels of anti-malarial antibodies in the elementary and middle school students,the positive rate of protozoan and the average infection rate were also used in the estimation of the trend of malaria development.Results Between 2000 and 2009,a total of 1 894 774 subjects were tested for their blood samples.2 832 subjects were found to have malaria infection（average positive rate：0.15%）.Further analysis revealed that 67.97% of cases were located in eight prefecture-level cities of the Pearl River Delta.And the positive rate of malaria is falling steadily each year.During this studying period,3 679 anopheles of various species were caught;the average man-biting rate was of 0.65 /man hour,in which the average man-biting rate by Anopheles sinensis was 0.43 /man hour,and the average vaccination rate was 0.0006.The average man-biting rate by Anopheles minimus was 0.10 /man hour,and the average vaccination ratewas 0.0002.The average man-biting rate by Anopheles lesteri anthropophagus was 0.001 /man hour,and the average vaccination rate was 0.00001.The average man-biting rate of Anopheles jeyporiensis candidiensis was 0.001 /man hour,and the average vaccination rate was 0.000001.All 10 652 students,from elementary and middle schools,were negative for malaria infection.Conclusion Incidence of malaria and the rate of medium anopheles bites in Guangdong province are declining each year.The average rate of infection is very low.Therefore,the risk of malaria outbreak in Guangdong province is low.In the past 10 years,the positive rate of malaria antibody in elementary and middle school students is zero,indicating that the prevalence of malaria in Guangdong province has been blocked.Further strengthening of malaria surveillance would help the elimination of malaria in Guangdong province.