| Abstract: | An article on "Post Hoc Reasoning in Possible Cases of Child Sexual Abuse: Symptoms of Inconclusive Origin" by Sbraga and O'Donohue (2003 , this issue) illustrates some general guidelines for clinical decision making. Most important in this regard is the fact that psychological assessment data are considerably more dependable for describing what people are like than for predicting how they are likely to behave or postdicting what they are likely to have done or experienced. This commentary reviews the nature of this difference in dependability and some related considerations involving nomothetic and idio-graphic appraisal, heterogeneity and nonspecificity of group characteristics, and markers and probabilities for identifying conditions. Awareness of these considerations can help clinicians and other psychological decision makers avoid unwarranted certainty in offering opinions about the likely occurrence of past or future events. |
