2005—2018年张家港市猩红热流行特征及趋势预测

 目的 分析2005-2018年张家港市猩红热流行特征和发病趋势，为预防猩红热的暴发流行提供依据。方法 采用回顾性分析方法对2005-2018年张家港市传染病报告信息管理系统上报的猩红热病例资料进行分析，采用流行控制图法预测2019年2-6月份猩红热发病趋势。结果 2005-2018年张家港市累积报告猩红热病例为584例，年均发病率为2.64/10万，无死亡病例。2005-2010年报告发病率处在慢速平稳期，年均发病率为1.04/10万；2011-2018年报告发病率处在震荡上升期，年均发病率为3.85/10万，报告病例明显增多。男女发病率比为1.58：1。其中3~12岁年龄组发病数最多，占95.21%（556/584）。猩红热诊断报告单位以三级医疗机构为主，占85.96%（502/584）。猩红热疫情季节分布明显，每年4-6月和11月至次年1月为高发时间段，预测2019年2-6月猩红热发病率将维持在较高水平。结论 张家港市猩红热发病率在2011-2018年有上升趋势，其中以3~12岁年龄组病例为主。根据2011-2018年发病趋势，预测2019年2-6月是张家港市猩红热的流行高峰阶段，该阶段应加强幼托机构、学校及人群密集场所的猩红热防控措施，提高医疗机构诊断的灵敏性，预防猩红热的暴发流行。

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of scarlet fever in Zhangjiagang City from 2005 to 2018

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of scarlet fever in Zhangjiagang City from 2005 to 2018, so as to provide basis for prevention of scarlet fever outbreak. Methods Data of scarlet fever cases reported by Zhangjiagang Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System from 2005 to 2018 were analyzed retrospectively, control chart of epidemic was used to predict the incidence trend of scarlet fever from February to June 2019. Results From 2005 to 2018, 584 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Zhangjiagang City, with an average annual incidence of 2.64/100 000, and there was no death case. From 2005 to 2010, the reported incidence was in a slow and steady stage, with an average annual incidence of 1.04/100 000; from 2011 to 2018, incidence of reported cases was in a rising stage, annual incidence was 3.85/100 000, the reported cases increased obviously. The ratio of incidence of male to female was 1.58:1, 3-12-year-old group had the highest incidence, accounting for 95.21% (556/584). The main reporting units of scarlet fever were tertiary medical institutions, accounting for 85.96% (502/584). Seasonal distribution of scarlet fever was obvious, incidence of scarlet fever was high in April-June each year and November to January of next year, it is predicted that incidence of scarlet fever would be maintained at a high level in February-June of 2019. Conclusion Incidence of scarlet fever in Zhangjiagang City is in an increased trend from 2011 to 2018, 3-12-year-old is the main group. According to the incidence trend from 2011 to 2018, it is predicted that February to June 2019 will be the peak stage of scarlet fever in Zhangjiagang City, prevention and control measures of scarlet fever in kindergartens, schools and crowded places should be strengthened, diagnostic sensitivity of medical institutions needs to be improved, so as to prevent the outbreak of scarlet fever.