P wave duration and morphology predict atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients with sinus node dysfunction and atrial-based pacemaker

P wave duration and morphology have never been systematically evaluated as markers of AF in patients with a conventional indication to pacing. This study correlated sinus P wave duration and morphology and the incidence of AF in patients with sinus node dysfunction (SND), previous history of AF before implant, and atrial-based pacemaker. Included were 140 patients (86 men, 54 women; mean age 71.8 +/- 10.4 years) with recurrent paroxysmal AF and who received a DDD (128 patients) or AAI (12 patients) pacemaker for SND. Forty-nine patients had structural heart disease. Sinus P wave duration and morphology was evaluated in leads II, III. Twenty-two patients had an abnormal P wave morphology, diphasic (+/-) in 5 and notched (+/+) in 17. The basic pacemaker rate was programmed between 60 and 70 beats/min. Rate responsive function was activated in 65 patients. During a follow-up of 27.6 +/- 17.8 months, AF was documented in 87 patients. Forty-four patients developed permanent AF, following at least one episode of paroxysmal AF in 26 cases. Statistical analysis used Cox model regression. Univariate predictors of AF (P < 0.10) were drugs (mean: 2 +/- 1.4) and DC shock before pacing (16/140 patients), P wave duration (mean 112.5 +/- 24.6 ms), basic pacemaker rate (mean 68 +/- 5 beats/min), and drugs in the follow-up (mean 1.2 +/- 0.94). Multivariate analysis showed that P wave duration (b = 0.013, s.e. = 0.004; P = 0.003), and drugs before pacing (b = 0.2; s.e. = 0.08; P < 0.01) resulted in a significant independent predictor of AF. Actuarial incidence of patients free of AF at 30 months was 35%: 56% in patients with a P wave < 120 ms, and 13% in those with P wave > or = 120 ms (P < 0.01 by Score test). Univariate predictors of permanent AF were drugs and DC shock before pacing, left atrial size (mean 39 +/- 6 mm), P wave duration, abnormal P wave morphology (22/140 patients), and drugs in the follow-up. Multivariate analysis showed that P wave morphology was the most important predictor of permanent AF (b = -0.56, s.e. = 0.2; P = 0.008). Incidence of patients free of permanent AF at 30 months was 69%: 74% in patients with normal P wave, compared to 28% in the case of abnormal P wave morphology (P < 0.01). P wave duration and morphology are good markers of postpacing AF recurrence in patients with SND and an atrial-based pacemaker. This observation suggests that intra- and interatrial conduction disturbances be extensively evaluated before implantation, and the indication for atrial resynchronization procedures be reevaluated.