Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis |
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| Authors: | Cheng-Jun Yu Zi-Xiao Wang Yue Xu Ming-Xia Hu Kai Chen Gang Qin |
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| Institution: | aDepartment of Internal Medicine, Medical School, Nantong University, Nantong, China;bDepartment of Computer Science, New York Institute of Technology, New York, NY, USA;cSchool of Pharmacy, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau;dDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nantong University, Nantong, China. |
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| Abstract: | Background:There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R0) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures.Methods:Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R0 values comparable, and by country/region to explore whether R0 estimates differed across the world. The average R0 values were pooled using a random-effects model.Results:We identified 185 unique articles, yielding 43 articles for analysis. The selected studies covered 5 countries from Asia, 5 countries from Europe, 12 countries from Africa, and 1 from North America, South America, and Australia each. Exponential growth rate model was most favored by researchers. The pooled global R0 was 4.08 (95% CI, 3.09–5.39). The R0 estimates for new and shifting epicenters were comparable or even higher than that for the original epicenter Wuhan, China.Conclusions:The high R0 values suggest that an extraordinary combination of control measures is needed for halting COVID-19. |
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| Keywords: | 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) basic reproduction number (R0) meta-analysis |
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