Ultrasound Fetal Weight Estimation: How Accurate Are We Now Under Emergency Conditions?

The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of sonographic estimation of fetal weight when performed at due date by first-line sonographers. This was a prospective study including 500 singleton pregnancies. Ultrasound examinations were performed by residents on delivery day. Estimated fetal weights (EFWs) were calculated and compared with the corresponding birth weights. The median absolute difference between EFW and birth weight was 200 g (100–330). This difference was within ±10% in 75.2% of the cases. The median absolute percentage error was 5.53% (2.70%–10.03%). Linear regression analysis revealed a good correlation between EFW and birth weight (r = 0.79, p < 0.0001). According to Bland–Altman analysis, bias was −85.06 g (95% limits of agreement: −663.33 to 494.21). In conclusion, EFWs calculated by residents were as accurate as those calculated by experienced sonographers. Nevertheless, predictive performance remains limited, with a low sensitivity in the diagnosis of macrosomia.     

Estimating Potency for the E max-Model Without Attaining Maximal Effects

The most widely applied model relating drug concentrations to effects is the E_max model. In practice, concentration–effect relationships often deviate from a simple linear relationship but without reaching a clear maximum because a further increase in concentration might be associated with unacceptable or distorting side effects. The parameters for the E_max model can only be estimated with reasonable precision if the curve shows sign of reaching a maximum, otherwise both EC₅₀ and E_max estimates may be extremely imprecise. This paper provides a solution by introducing a new parameter (S₀ ) equal to E_max/EC₅₀ that can be used to characterize potency adequately even if there are no signs of a clear maximum. Simulations are presented to investigate the nature of the new parameter and published examples are used as illustration.     

Modelling Germline Mosaicism and Different New Mutation Rates Simultaneously for Appropriate Risk Calculations in Families with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

For several genetic diseases two biological phenomena have been recognised as important: germline mosaicism; and different new mutation rates in males and females depending on mutation type. Both principles have been investigated separately and their influence on risk estimation in families has been exemplified in the literature. The aim of this paper is to present a general model that includes mosaicism and different new mutation rates. Mosaicism is introduced by defining additional alleles at the disease locus in combination with adapted segregation rules. Taking Duchenne muscular dystrophy as an example, we derive the conditions which have to be fulfilled for a population in mutation selection equilibrium. Our approach describes the model at the population level and not in individual subjects. This has the advantage of being able to use well known algorithms for the calculation of likelihoods in pedigrees, and to include additional diagnostic information such as marker genotypes and carrier deletion test results. We demonstrate the impact of the new model on a typical pedigree. In families where the patient is not available, the distinction between point mutations and deletions is important, since often molecular diagnostic tests for females can only screen for deletions. Negative deletion test results can now be included in the risk calculations.     

Improved estimates of discordance ratios in twin studies

In the study of monozygotic twins relative to disease and risk factors, particular interest focuses on the subset who are discordant for some suspected risk factor (for example, smoking), since such twins constitute a natural case-control pair. In such studies, questionnaires designed to identify the status of all twin pairs are sometimes error prone and can yield misleading estimates of the concordance-discordance ratios. Greater efforts to verify the characteristics of apparently discordant pairs than to verify those of apparently concordant pairs can result in the 'unequal ascertainment' fallacy. Using the results of a questionnaire with known error rates and the 'apparent' frequencies yielded, we present unbiased, maximum likelihood estimates of the 'true' proportions of concordant and discordant pairs. concordant and discordant pairs. We also present approximate covariances among these estimates.     

生理影像信息技术及其临床应用

生理影像是功能性医学影像的一个重要分支,也是临床医学工程的一个极其重要的研究和应用领域。多年来,作者及其研究生与临床医务人员相结合,在电生理影像和热生理影像的信息获取和数字化处理技术方面进行了大量及深入的研究,提出了一种体内热估计(ITE)新技术。本文重点介绍热生理影像信息在妇女乳腺癌诊断中的应用。通过对约五千例妇女乳腺病筛选的结果,表明了生理影像信息处理及ITE技术在临床医学上的应用价值。     

Advances in processing of surface myoelectric signals: Part 1

During sustained voluntary or electrically elicted muscle contractions the surface myoelectric signal is nonstationary and it undergoes progressive changes reflecting the modifications of the motor unit action potentials and their propagation velocity. In particular, during sustained electrical stimulation, the evoked signals show progressive amplitude, time scaling and shape modification. The quantitative evaluation of these changes is important for non-invasive muscle characterisation and may be performed in either the time or frequency domain using parametric and nonparametric spectral analysis as well as alternative methodologies. The paper introduces the detection techniques, reviews and compares the methods of spectral estimation based on FFT and autoregressive models, and discusses their applications and limitations in extracting information from the surface myoelectric signal with particular regard to myoelectric manifestations of localised muscle fatigue during sustained contractions.     

Performance in population models for count data,part II: A new SAEM algorithm

Analysis of count data from clinical trials using mixed effect analysis has recently become widely used. However, algorithms available for the parameter estimation, including LAPLACE and Gaussian quadrature (GQ), are associated with certain limitations, including bias in parameter estimates and the long analysis runtime. The stochastic approximation expectation maximization (SAEM) algorithm has proven to be a very efficient and powerful tool in the analysis of continuous data. The aim of this study was to implement and investigate the performance of a new SAEM algorithm for application to count data. A new SAEM algorithm was implemented in MATLAB for estimation of both, parameters and the Fisher information matrix. Stochastic Monte Carlo simulations followed by re-estimation were performed according to scenarios used in previous studies (part I) to investigate properties of alternative algorithms (Plan et al., 2008, Abstr 1372 []). A single scenario was used to explore six probability distribution models. For parameter estimation, the relative bias was less than 0.92% and 4.13% for fixed and random effects, for all models studied including ones accounting for over- or under-dispersion. Empirical and estimated relative standard errors were similar, with distance between them being <1.7% for all explored scenarios. The longest CPU time was 95 s for parameter estimation and 56 s for SE estimation. The SAEM algorithm was extended for analysis of count data. It provides accurate estimates of both, parameters and standard errors. The estimation is significantly faster compared to LAPLACE and GQ. The algorithm is implemented in Monolix 3.1, (beta-version available in July 2009).     

顺丁烯二酸水溶液的热反应动力学

研究了不同温度、浓度条件下，顺丁烯二酸（顺酸）非催化反应网络，即顺酸可生成反丁烯二酸（反酸）和苹果酸，反酸与苹果酸存在可逆反应。建立了该反应网络的动力学模型。测定了不同反应条件下顺酸、反酸和苹果酸浓度随时间变化的规律，据此，动力学参数进行了估值。     

医院综合效益评价中的权数（三）——估计权数

在医院综合效益评价中，估计权数由评价专家根据经验对评价指标的重要程度的一种评估，这类数据通常用的ＡＨＰ法进行处理。本文用ＡＨＰ的递推算法计算估计权数，这种算法不仅计算简单，而且易达到一致性的要求，其估计的剩余误差小于ＡＨＰ法。