时间序列模型联合ROC曲线在血液库存管理上的拓展应用

目的通过建立时间序列模型预测未来用血量,指导各医疗机构合理预定血液,促进血站合理调配资源。方法应用时间序列模型中的自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)预测该院未来用血量,联合类似受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的评分表,评定不同库存量下预测值的供血充足率和零库存率,评定最优库存量。结果 ARIMA(1,1,0)模型预测值与该院实际用血量基本相符,拟合较好;该院A、B、AB型悬浮红细胞库存为0时,按预测量预定血液效果最佳,O型血在库存量为2时按预测量预定效果最佳。结论该院按ARIMA(1,1,0)模型指导预定血液不仅可以保证临床正常用血,而且有利于降低该院血液库存率,避免血液资源库存浪费,缓解"血荒"造成的临床用血紧张状况。     

中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值在女性外阴硬化性苔藓患者继发甲状腺异常风险预测中的价值

目的:探讨中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)在女性外阴硬化性苔藓(VLS)患者继发甲状腺异常中的预测价值。方法:从2014年1月-2018年6月确诊的女性VLS患者中随机抽取273例,进行外周血NLR水平追踪,研究追踪时间截止至2018年12月31日,甲状腺异常者在第一次出现异常时即停止追踪。VLS继发甲状腺异常者设为观察组,其余为对照组,比较两组患者的甲状腺激素及抗体水平的差异,并采用Pearson相关分析NLR与外阴白斑面积、甲状腺激素及抗体水平的相关性,同时采用ROC曲线评估NLR在预测女性VLS患者继发甲状腺异常中的临床效能。结果:VLS患者平均年龄为(42.17±8.65)岁,皮损部位多局限于大小阴唇及阴道口,多数呈现色素脱失或减退。甲状腺异常发生率为13.92%(38/273),出现甲状腺异常的平均时间为(15.21±3.48)个月,以TPO-Ab和TSH水平异常为主。Pearson相关分析显示NLR与外阴白斑面积、TSH及TPO-Ab水平均呈正相关性(r值分别为0.232、0.531、0.499)。ROC曲线结果显示,NLR预测女性VLS患者继发甲状腺异常的ROC曲线下面积为0.906(95%CI:0.841～0.971),当NLR为5.585时,约登指数为0.736,敏感度为84.2%,特异度为89.4%。结论:女性VLS患者甲状腺功能或抗体异常的发生率较高,NLR能有效预测VLS患者继发甲状腺异常的发生,临床医生应当对VLS患者常规检测NLR水平。     

10款美胸霜，预约凹凸曲线

做手术？不是不想，可是更担心有风险，暂时不予考虑。 服用口服药？说不定会有副作用．还是算了吧。 去健身房？又苦又累。而且练出来的是硬邦邦的肌肉而不是柔软的脂肪。[编者按]     

三菱医用加速器原体照射装置的构成及其精度的检测

本文介绍了三菱医用加速器原体照射系统的原理和基本构成,描述了计算机程序编排框图和控制信号的流程图。详细介绍了原体照射精度的检测方法和结果。测量表明,实测照射野和计算值误差小于3mm,80％等剂量曲线有效地包围着靶体,各方面的实测照射野与CT片肿瘤断面形状近似度极好。     

对药代动力学实验的两点改进

通过具体的实验数据，讨论在药代动力学实验中如何加入曲线下面积（AUC）的计算，以帮助学生理解并掌握这一概念；在实验室设置不同剂量组，给药后比较剂量与浓度是否呈等比例关系，以此加深学生对于一级动力学消除及其临床意义的理解。     

Surgical strategy of one stage surgery of anterior release combined with posterior correction in treatment of severe scoliosis

Objective: Severe scoliosis refers to scoliosis with serious and stiff curve. It always combins with trunk imbalance in coronal and sagittal contour. Besides complex pathological changes, cardiopulmonary deficits and other concomitant diseases increase treatmental difficulties. So the treatment of severe scoliosis is always a great challenge to spine surgeon. Methods :Thirty-six patients with severe scoliosis received one stage posterior correction followed by anterior release during July 1997 to January 2003, including 9 males and 27 females. Mean age was 17.2 years. Of them, 33 was idiopathic scoliosis and 3 was neurofibromatosis scoliosis( Cobb angle: 85-116 degree); 20 cases were abnormal in sagital plane. Three-dimensional devised instrumentation were applied such as CD, CD-Horizon, TSRH or Isola in posterior procedure followed by anterior release during the same anesthesia. 31 cases of this group received thorac icplasty. Results: The correction in the frontal plane achieved an average of 48.5%. In the sagittal plane, the pathological shape of the spine was reduced and distinctly ameliorated. 80. 6% of the patients maintained or achieved balance of sagittal plane. There were no complications of severe neurological deficit, hook displacement, rod broken, and deep infection at follow-up. One case occurred traumatic pleurisy after operation and another appeared pseudarthrosis 2 years later. One case demonstrated imbalance 11 months after operation. One patient was presented loss of correction more than 10 degree at one year follow-up and 5.2 degree in average. Conclusion:The study indicates that the one stage posterior correction combined with anterior release in treatment of severe scoliosis can achieve satisfactory correction. Appropriate choice of cases, preoperational detailed assessment and application of SEP and wake-up test during operation can possibly reduce severe complication. The long-term outcomes still need further observation.     

放射免疫分析中的数据处理方法

放射免疫分析灵敏度高、特异性强、精确度佳。但是一切实验都不可避免地会产生误差。为了提高测量精确度,要求我们竭力削弱各种误差的影响,获取最佳测量条件,并运用误差理论的有关原则来处理数据,以确定被测值或揭示被测对象对输入量的相应规律。 放射免疫分析最终目的是给出待测物质的准确量。数据处理就是将实验测得的未知样品的直接结果换算成剂量,通过误差分析和加工整理,计算其精度。多数放免分析系统基本上是均一性的,而且反应是在达到充分平衡后才用分离剂进行分离,因此剂量反应关系有典型的特点,可以通过实验数据作出一条尽可能反映真实函数关系的曲线,并对曲线作定量分析。 一、标准曲线的拟合:从一组离散的测量数据中,运用有关误差理论知识,求得一条能最佳地描述该原函数的曲线的过程即为拟合过程。数据拟合主要解决从给出的离散数据中找出变量之间的关系。