Validation of PATHFx 2.0: An open-source tool for estimating survival in patients undergoing pathologic fracture fixation

Treatment decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease rely on accurate survival estimation. We developed the original PATHFx models using expensive, proprietary software and now seek to provide a more cost-effective solution. Using open-source machine learning software to create PATHFx version 2.0, we asked whether PATHFx 2.0 could be created using open-source methods and externally validated in two unique patient populations. The training set of a well-characterized, database records of 189 patients and the bnlearn package within R Version 3.5.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing), was used to establish a series of Bayesian belief network models designed to predict survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Each was externally validated in both a Scandinavian (n = 815 patients) and a Japanese (n = 261 patients) data set. Brier scores and receiver operating characteristic curves to assessed discriminatory ability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated whether models should be used clinically. DCA showed that the model should be used clinically at all time points in the Scandinavian data set. For the 1-month time point, DCA of the Japanese data set suggested to expect better outcomes assuming all patients will survive greater than 1 month. Brier scores for each curve demonstrate that the models are accurate at each time point. Statement of Clinical Significance: we successfully transitioned to PATHFx 2.0 using open-source software and externally validated it in two unique patient populations, which can be used as a cost-effective option to guide surgical decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease.     

铁路系统医院136篇口腔修复、正畸学论文的统计分析

通过对铁路系统医院１３６篇口腔修复、正畸学论文的统计分析，来评价医院口腔修复、正畸的科研水平，同时也揭示了科研工作中存在的问题。指出只有加强科研协作、扩大学术交流、增加科研投入，提高科研水平，使科研成果更趋完善。     

Using Computer Simulated Results of a Bulk Drug Substance Assay to Determine Acceptance Criteria for Method Validation

Purpose. To determine the statistical variability expected for a well designed HPLC assay of a bulk drug substance (BDS). The results are used to develop appropriate acceptance criteria for a method validation protocol as well as to evaluate the level of uncertainty expected for assay results using a variety of sampling/injection schemes. Methods. Computer simulation was used to generate a large quantity of data and the variability of the mock results was evaluated. Error propagation was also calculated, whenever possible, to confirm results obtained from the simulations. Results. Protocol acceptance criteria were developed that were consistent with the expected variability for data resulting from the execution of the validation protocol. In certain cases simulations provided the only avenue of obtaining results that could not otherwise be readily determined. Conclusions. Computer modeling can be used to obtain suitable acceptance criteria for validation results which are consistent with method variability. This is particularly significant in the case of linearity where it has been difficult to develop acceptance criteria based on anything other than analyst intuition and experience. Assay simulations clearly demonstrated that the variability expected for a typical BDS assay is large relative to the average specification range and therefore little insight about relative purity can be gained comparing individual passing assay results.     

Novel ROC-type method for testing the efficiency of multivariate statistical methods in fMRI.

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method is a useful and popular tool for testing the efficiency of various diagnostic tests applicable to functional MRI (fMRI) data. Typically, the diagnostic tests are applied on simulated and pseudo-human fMRI data, and the area under the ROC curve is used as a measure of the efficiency of the diagnostic test. The effectiveness of such a method depends on how well the simulated data approximate the real data. For multivariate statistical methods, however, this technique is usually inadequate, as the spatial dependence among voxels is ignored for simulated data. In this work a modified ROC method using real fMRI data with a broader scope is proposed. This method can be applied to most fMRI postprocessing techniques, including multivariate analyses such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Also, the relationship of the modified ROC method with the conventional ROC method is discussed in detail.     

医院统计在医院要素分配中的作用

目的 为支持医院内部要素分配调整改革，医院统计应展开与要素分配有关的项目进行统计，为医院要素分配向高、精、尖、绩效好的医务人员倾斜提供统计数据。方法 应用ExCEL软件的合并功能对病人信息和病案信息进行深层次的挖掘、提取、重新整合统计，制成简明易懂的统计报表给予反馈公布，作为医师提取个人奖酬、职称晋升或聘任竞岗的考核依据。结果通过统计作用实现了劳动价值创造，调动了广大医务人员的积极性，促使医院经营理念成为引导个人自觉行为的杠杆，实现了医院提高综合竞争实力的整体效应。结论 要素分配中统计工作应遵循公平、合理、反映医院经营理念的原则和利用网络科技实现高效管理并且应与改革同步，深化统计内涵，完善医院的统计方法。     

眼外伤临床统计规范探讨

眼外伤是我国眼科住院三大主要疾病之一，占眼科住院病人总数的１６￣３２％。每年发表临床统计文章百余篇，但由于统计资料不全面，标准不统一，降低了这部分劳动的价值。本文就眼外伤临床统计规范及某些问题进行讨论，强调规范化的重要意义。     

Cerebrovascular deaths before and after the appearance of oral contraceptives

The mortality of cerebrovascular diseases in Denmark was analysed for men and women 15-44 years of age, in a 14-year period before and after the appearance of oral contraceptives (OC) in 1966. 1,670 deaths were registered over 28 years, during which the female incidence of cerebrovascular deaths increased by 19% (P less than 0.025), while the male mortality was unchanged. Women showed a percentage increase in deaths from cerebral thromboembolic attacks (CTA) of 33%, men a fall of 14%. The increase of female CTA deaths was most pronounced in the young fertile group, the age group with a high OC use. A relative risk of CTA of 3.3-4.5 for OC users compared with non-users could explain the CTA trend difference between women and men. No other single risk factor responsible for the observed trends could be identified. Both women and men had a significant increase in the mortality of subarachnoidal hemorrhages, and a significant fall in the mortality of intracerebral hemorrhages.     

测胎儿器官重量探讨其生长发育规律

根据1022例新鲜胎尸的不同受精龄与体重，十项重要器官（心、肝、脾、左右肺、左右肾、左右肾上腺、胸腺等）的重量进行测量，将所测得的原始数据输入到IBM-PC/XT微型计算机内进行数据处理。探讨胎儿生长发育的基本规律。结果：（1）建立了胎儿体重与胎龄之间的推算式；（2）建立了胎儿各重要器官重量与胎龄之间的推算式；（3）建立了胎儿体重每月平均增长量与胎龄之间的推算式；（4）按胎儿体重每月平均增长量，用有序聚类分析方法，将胎儿生长发育过程划分为三个阶段。