Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Periodontal conditions among the middle-aged and the elderly in Hong Kong

Abstract The aim of this study was to describe the periodontal conditions in 372 35–44-yr-old and 537 noninstitutionalized 65–74-yr-old Hong Kong Chinese who were examined clinically for loss of attachment, recession, probing depth, calculus, and bleeding after probing. Community Periodontal Index (CPI) data and treatment need indications were compiled from index teeth or their substitutes. The prevalence of loss of attachment varied considerably in both cohorts according to the definition of the threshold (≥6, ≥9, and ≥12 mm, respectively). The mean numbers of teeth with loss of attachment at the ≥6-mm threshold and at higher thresholds were small. In both age cohorts, about one-fifth of subjects had probing depths ≥6-mm, while al the ≥9-mm threshold only 2–3% were so affected. Although recession was an important component of loss of attachment in the younger cohort, in the older cohort the prevalence and extent of recession were greater than for probing depths at thresholds ≥4 mm. All subjects had one or more teeth with calculus, bleeding, or both, most teeth being so affected. Eighty-four of the 537 65–74-yr-old subjects were excluded either because of edentulousness or because extractions indicated for the remaining teeth would have rendered the subjects edentulous. The distribution of subjects according to their highest CPI score was remarkably similar for the two cohorts. No subjects in either age group were assessed as “healthy” (CPI code 0) or had “bleeding only” (code 1) as their highest score. While most subjects scored CPI code 2 or 3 us their highest score, only 17% of the younger and 15% of the older cohort scored Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Needs (CPITN) code 4. Differences in the mean number of sextants affected by CPI codes between the two cohorts were mainly due to a greater number of excluded sextants in the older cohort. CPI findings for 35–44-yr-olds differed little from those reported in 1984.     

浅谈对传染科护士素质的要求与体会

根据笔者在传染科病房工作中的体会,从六个方面针对传染科工作的特殊性和存在的共性分别阐述了传染科护士在工作中如何高标准、严要求自己,如何对病人做到到位的护理,旨在提高传染科病房的整体护理质量,从而把更多的实惠让利于患者。     

DNA probe technology: implications for service planning in Britain

For certain genetic conditions DNA testing identifies carriers and determines the risk status of foetuses, thus helping parents to make more informed prenatal decisions. Data, collected from three genetic centres in England and Wales from August 1986 to July 1990, are used to describe trends in demand for DNA testing, the impact of DNA tests on carrier risk assessment, and the use of DNA tests in relation to pregnancy outcome. Altogether the data include 23,388 subjects and 681 pregnancies in 8738 families divided into five cohorts by year of entry and referral. The most frequent gene disorders referred to the genetic centres are currently being tested or will soon be tested. For these disorders the initial high level of activity has declined and may have reached steady state. Demand for DNA services is high for cystic fibrosis and Duchenne muscular dystrophy, intermediate for Huntington's disease, and low for adult polycystic kidney disease, phenylketonuria and tuberous sclerosis. Based on these findings we suggest that demand for DNA tests will be high in serious, untreatable and slow progressing conditions with early onset; intermediate for conditions affecting intellect and neurological integrity with later onset; and low for treatable, late-onset conditions, or those for which there is evidence of heterogeneity, and variable penetrance. It would be helpful to assess the extent to which this view of demand is confirmed when the new disorders being DNA tested are considered and for the pattern of activity of DNA testing for some types of cancer. Since no DNA centre could offer a fully comprehensive testing service, it is recommended that a structure is created to audit overall activity, assist in policy formulation, and influence supraregional service organisation, in order that the spread of DNA services be planned as effectively as possible. This structure would facilitate monitoring of the evolution of contract specifications agreed by commissioners and providers on a regional basis.     

'Jumping through hoops': parents' experiences with seeking respite care for children with special needs

Background   Respite care may act as a means to reduce stress and fatigue in people caring for a dependent who has a disability. Despite this, a variety of barriers may exist to obtaining such services. This study explored caregivers' experiences seeking respite care for their children with special needs within a province in Canada.
Methods   Caregivers were recruited from two agencies providing respite care for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders and other mental health and developmental difficulties. In total, 10 caregivers participated in in-depth individual interviews. A constructivist grounded theory approach was employed in the design and analysis of the data.
Results   Caregivers discussed their frustrations with the process of finding and obtaining respite care, a course of action described as 'jumping through hoops'. This construct was composed of subcategories emphasizing the complexity of 'navigating the system', the bidirectional process of 'meeting the requirements' and the challenges of 'getting help'.
Conclusions   The collective experiences of these caregivers point to the need for more flexibility and co-ordination of respite care services for children with special needs.     

Regulation of growth hormone during exercise by oxygen demand and availability

Summary Five normal men performed seven sets of seven squats at a load equal to 80% of their seven repetition maximum. Plasma growth hormone (GH) and lactate levels increased during and after the completion of the exercise. A significant (r=0.93, P<0.001) linear correlation was found between GH changes and the corresponding oxygen Demand/Availability (D/A) ratio expressed by (where f=[lactate at time x]/[lactate at time 0]). A retrospective examination of previously published data from our laboratory and others also demonstrated the existence of a significant correlation between changes in plasma GH levels and the D/A ratios over a wide variety of exercise; aerobic and anaerobic, continuous and intermittent, weight lifting and cycling, in both fit and unfit subjects under normoxic and hypoxic conditions. It is suggested that the balance between oxygen demand and availability may be an important regulator of GH secretion during exercise. DCIEM No. 87-P-27     

ONSET AND TERMINAL ORIENTING RESPONSES AS A FUNCTION OF TASK DEMANDS

The frequency of response and trials to habituation of the electrodermal onset and terminal orienting response were manipulated as a function of discrimination tasks involving either stimulus content (pitch) or duration. There were no significant differences between the groups on either measure for onset ORs; however, the duration task group demonstrated more TORs and required a greater number of trials to habituate than the content task group. The results, interpreted in terms of the development of cortical models, supported Stern's suggestion that OR and TOR habituation are related to the content and duration of the stimulus respectively.     

重庆市北碚主城区老年医疗需求现状、对策和模式的研究

目的：了解重庆老人的需求状况以及老人的建议和希望。方法：以重庆市北碚主城区4893名60岁以上的老人进行问卷调查。结果：79．81％的老人患病时就近医疗;86．53％的老人感到看病不方便;86．37％的老人不参加保健咨询;65．48％的老人不听保健讲座;1．02％的老人因心理问题到医院就诊;55．69％的老人愿意参加群众性老年体育活动,随着年龄的增长,希望得到更好的医疗,预防,保健,康复的人数增多。结论：需改善老人看病难的现象,提供多渠道,多形式的老年医疗保健咨询,讲座,组织群众性老年体育活动,使老人的医疗服务需进一步提高和得到重视,争取探索一条以家庭为基础,社区医疗服务为依托,以综合性医院为技术保障,老年医疗康复为中心的模式。     

“互联网+”居家养老服务需求意愿及影响因素研究

目的:以合肥市为例,基于老年人自身角度,对“互联网+”居家养老服务需求程度及影响因素进行探究方法;采用描述性统计方法探究老年人“互联网+”居家养老服务需求及接受现状;采用多元有序logistic模型从个体特征、社会环境特征、“互联网+”认知特征等三方面分析不同特征老人“互联网+”居家养老服务需求影响因素。结果:①老年人对于智能化养老需求意愿较高,但实际接受程度仍偏低。②年龄、文化程度、享受养老保险类型、“互联网+”居家养老服务认识了解程度,智能设备使用简易程度等会正向促进居家养老服务需求程度的提高。而户口所在地、当前养老现状满意程度、信息化养老服务费用等会负向影响居家养老服务需求程度的提高。结论:促进老年人生活质量进一步提高,应从增强“互联网+”居家养老服务模式普及率,尊重社区居民养老服务需求,坚持政府主导与市场融合,构建完善基础信息技术系统等方面入手。