Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of alternative vaccines against COVID-19 in Brazil: Coronavac vs. Astrazeneca vs. Pfizer

We propose a probabilistic model to quantify the cost-benefit of mass Vaccination Scenarios (VSs) against COVID-19. Through this approach, we conduct a six-month simulation, from August 31st, 2021 to March 3rd, 2022, of nine VSs, i.e., the three primary vaccine brands in Brazil (CoronaVac, AstraZeneca and Pfizer), each with three different vaccination rates (2nd doses per week). Since each vaccine has different individual-level effectiveness, we measure the population-level benefit as the probability of reaching herd immunity (HI). We quantify and categorize the cost-benefit of VSs through risk graphs that show: (i) monetary cost vs. probability of reaching HI; and (ii) number of new deaths vs. probability of reaching HI. Results show that AstraZeneca has the best cost-benefit when prioritizing acquisition costs, while Pfizer is the most cost-beneficial when prioritizing the number of deaths. This work provides helpful information that can aid public health authorities in Brazil to better plan VSs. Furthermore, our approach is not restricted to Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic, or the mentioned vaccine brands. Indeed, the method is flexible so that this study can be a valuable reference for future cost-benefit analyses in other countries and pandemics, especially in the early stages of vaccination, when data is scarce and uncertainty is high.     

我国类鼻疽病的流行病学特征及诊疗的研究进展

类鼻疽病是由类鼻疽伯克霍尔德菌(Burkholderia pseudomallei)感染引起的一类人畜共患病,主要流行于全球热带及亚热带地区。在我国主要流行于南部地区,疫源地为海南、广东、广西、台湾等。伴随着旅游业和贸易业的发展,我国其他非疫区出现了输入性病例。类鼻疽病的感染途径主要为经伤口、粘膜、呼吸道、消化道等,其病变可涉及机体所有器官,易造成较高的误诊率和病死率。然而我国目前类鼻疽病的流行病筛查技术存在一定的局限性,在防控方面未实行有效的疾病监测和疾病报告制度,对基层医师和民众疾病知识普及的力度不够。因此,本文旨在提高我国医务工作者对类鼻疽病的重视程度,从类鼻疽病的病原学特征、流行病学特征、临床特征、诊断与治疗、防控措施这五个方面进行详细综述。     

广东省儿童乙型肝炎疫苗纳入计划免疫管理10年后血清学效果分析

为研究广东省乙型肝炎 (乙肝 )疫苗纳入计划免疫管理 10年后儿童血清乙肝病毒感染标志物 (HBVM )的变化 ,采用分层多阶段随机抽样法 ,将全省分 4层 ,共抽取 12个县 2 4个村的 196 3名儿童为研究样本。采血用固相放射免疫法 (SPRIA)检测乙肝病毒表面抗原 (HBsAg)、乙肝病毒核心抗体 (抗 HBc)、乙肝病毒表面抗体 (抗 HBs)。2 0 0 2年调查 1～ 14岁儿童乙肝疫苗接种率为 78 81% ,全程接种率为 74 17%。其中 1～ 9岁儿童乙肝疫苗全程接种率为 81 73% ,10～ 14岁为 6 0 32 %。 1～ 14岁儿童HBsAg携带率、抗 HBc阳性率、HBV感染率分别从 1992年的 19 86 %、5 3 5 9%、71 4 1%降至 2 0 0 2年的 8 5 6 %、2 2 5 7%、31 33%。其中 1～ 9岁儿童的HBsAg携带率、抗 HBc阳性率、HBV感染率分别从 1992年的 17 88%、4 7 0 9%、6 7 4 4 %下降至 2 0 0 2年的 5 75 %、14 4 9%、2 1 81%。乙肝疫苗接种后 ,1～ 3岁儿童抗 HBs阳性率为 5 2 0 2 %～ 6 2 18%。由于实施了加强免疫 ,4～ 14岁儿童的抗 HBs维持在 5 9 32 %～ 6 5 80 %。广东省乙肝疫苗纳入计划免疫管理 10年后 ,全省 1～ 14岁儿童HBV感染率已大幅度下降 ,抗 HBs阳性率大幅度升高 ,取得了良好的经济和社会效益。     

Diabetes prevalence in England, 2001--estimates from an epidemiological model.

AIMS: To estimate the total prevalence of diabetes mellitus (diagnosed and undiagnosed) at national, regional and local level in England to support health-care planning and delivery. METHODS: An epidemiological model was constructed by applying age-sex-ethnic-specific reference prevalence rates from epidemiological studies to resident populations (2001 census) of England at national, regional, and local authority/Primary Care Trust levels. RESULTS: Estimated prevalence of total diabetes for all persons in England was 4.41% in 2001, equating to 2 168 000 persons. Type 2 diabetes was estimated to affect 2 002 000 persons (92.3%) and Type 1 diabetes 166 000 persons (7.7%). Diabetes prevalence was estimated to be higher in women (5.17%) than men (3.61%). People from ethnic minority groups had higher crude prevalence than White Europeans (4.29, 5.69, 6.63 and 2.13% among White Europeans, Black African/Caribbeans, South Asians and 'other' groups, respectively). Prevalence increased sharply with age (0.33, 3.37 and 13.92%, respectively, in those aged 0-29, 30-59 and 60+ years). The model allows use of user-defined population denominator estimates to derive numbers and prevalence of people with diabetes for a given local population group, such as at ward or general practice level. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported diabetes prevalence estimates from community surveys underestimate the true burden of diabetes. The model can be used to derive the expected total prevalence of diabetes in health areas that lack reliable data to facilitate the implementation of the National Service Framework for diabetes. It will also allow estimates of future diabetes prevalence to be derived, and can potentially be used for prevalence estimates in all of the UK.     

Statistical characterisation of bacterial wild-type MIC value distributions and the determination of epidemiological cut-off values

MIC distribution data were obtained from a variety of international sources, and pooled after selection by a defined criterion. Sixty-seven of these datasets were subjected to a range of statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The log-normal distribution was selected for subsequent modelling. Cumulative counts of MIC distribution data were fitted to the cumulative log-normal distribution using non-linear least squares regression for a range of data subsets from each antibiotic-bacterium combination. Estimated parameters in the regression were the number of isolates in the subset, and (the log(2) values of) the mean and standard deviation. Optimum fits for the cumulative log-normal curve were then used to determine the wild-type MIC range, determined by calculating the MICs associated with the lower and upper 0.1% of the distribution, rounding to the nearest two-fold dilution, and calculating the probabilities of values higher and lower than these values. When plotted logarithmically, histograms of MIC frequencies appeared normal (Gaussian), but standard goodness-of-fit tests showed that the two-fold dilution grouping of MICs fits poorly to a log-normal distribution, whereas non-linear regression gave good fits to population (histogram) log-normal distributions of log(2) MIC frequencies, and even better fits to log-normal cumulative distributions. Optimum fits were found when the difference between the estimated and true number of isolates in the fitted subset was minimal. Sixteen antibiotic-bacterium datasets were fitted using this technique, and the log(2) values of the means and standard deviations were used to determine the 0.1% and 99.9% wild-type cut-off values. When rounded to the nearest two-fold dilution, > or = 98.5% of MIC values fall within the cut-off value range. Non-linear regression fitting to a cumulative log-normal distribution is a novel and effective method for modelling MIC distributions and quantifying wild-type MIC ranges.     

传染性非典型肺炎患者泪液和血液中特异性抗体检测的对比研究

目的：通过传染性非典型肺炎(SARS)患者泪液病毒特异性抗体的检测，寻找SARS病毒是否通过泪液或眼结膜传播的理论依据，了解泪液和血液中SARS病毒特异性抗体检测结果的一致性程度。方法：用酶联免疫吸附法(ELISA)检测18例不同病程的SARS患者泪波及血清SARS病毒特异性抗体。结果：18例SARS患者泪液中的特异性IgM类和IgG类抗体均为阴性，而同组患者有13例其血液中的特异性IgM类和IgG类抗体呈阳性。结论：SARS病毒可能不通过泪液或结膜传播。     

An epidemiological study of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolated from medical staff, inpatients, and hospital environment in one ward at our hospital.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is one of the most important causative microorganisms for nosocomial infections. Recently, the incidence of isolation of MRSA has been increasing every year in Japan and is, notably, much more frequently found in inpatients than in outpatients. Therefore, we have done epidemiological studies of MRSA isolated from medical staff, inpatients, and the hospital environment in one ward of our hospital. Thereafter, we examined the antibiotic susceptibility (ABPC, DMPPC, CET, CMZ, IPM, GM, MINO, OFLX, EM, CLDM, VCM), phage typing, and coagulase typing of these MRSA. MRSA were isolated more frequently from anterior nares of inpatients than from doctors and nurses. MRSA were isolated more frequently from the environment near carriers of MRSA. Coagulase type II and phage type N.T. (not typable) were the dominant types of MRSA in our hospital (69% and 61%). MRSA strains were resistant to most antibiotics with a few exceptions (VCM, IPM, CMZ, CET). The high isolation frequency of MRSA in our hospital seems to suggest that inpatients who are carrying MRSA spread MRSA throughout the hospital environment and that the anterior nares of inpatients are the major MRSA harbor.     

HBV血清学标记携带者家庭内传染性多因素分析

HBV血清学标记携带者的传染受许多因素的影响。本研究采用多因素分析方法,定量描述了各种类型HBV血清学标记携带者家庭内传染性及有关因素影响的大小。家中上次HBsAg携带与易感者HBsAg和HBeAg阳转呈正相关。家中上次抗-HBc携带与易感者抗-HBc阳转呈正相关,OR=5.98;但与抗-HBc滴度变化无显著联系。而家中上次抗-HBc携带,HBsAg与抗-HBc同时携带与易感者HBsAg和HBeAg阳转呈负相关。年龄与HBsAg阳转呈负相关;文化水平与易感者抗-HBs阳转亦呈负相关;手术史、注射史与乙肝续发感染正相关。多因素分析对阐明人群中大量HBV血清学标记携带者的动态变化有一定意义。     

乙型和丙型肝炎病毒血清学标志与原发性肝癌关系的研究

目的：研究原发性肝齐(PHC)病人中乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)和丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)血清学标志的分布状况。方法：选择全市40家医院收治住院确诊PHC患者100例，用ELISA法进行HBsAg、抗-HBs、HBeAg、抗-HBe和抗-HBc和抗-HCV检测。结果：PHC组HBV和抗-HCV的感染率分别为89．0％和8．0％，明显高于对照组(P＜0．001)，两者的ARP(归因危险度百分比)分别为93．0％和88．0％。HBV血清学标志在PHC的分布较高的是HBsAg、抗-HBc和HBsAg、HBeAg、抗-HBc组合。协同作用分析结果显示HBsAg、抗-HCV同时阳性者的OR值为46．28，较单一指标阳性的OR为高，也高于两者单独阳性的OR值之和。结论：HBV和HCV感染均是PHC发生的主要病原学因素。HBV是肝癌发生的主要因素。