The theory of Rational Addiction

The Theory of Rational Addictions, by Gary Becker & Kevin Murphy (1988), was a rational choice model that became a standard tool for economists modeling addictive behavior. The approach differs from other theories of addiction by modeling addictive behavior as the gradual implementation of a rational, forward‐looking plan, where consumption at any point in time is partly motivated by the immediate payoff of consumption and partly by the effects this consumption has on the individual in the future. This makes addictive behavior a subset of rational behavior, requiring no more specific government policies or attention than any other consumption choice. Later work by economists extended the theory in different ways, allowing it to match an increasing number of consumption patterns, and searched for ways to test the forward‐looking assumption in different types of market data. While the work was successful as a contribution to rational choice theory, with possible statistical applications, there are several reasons to dismiss its usefulness as an explanation of real‐world addictive behavior and its ability to assess the welfare effects of addictions.     

Patient preferences and predicted relative uptake for targeted therapies in metastatic colorectal cancer: a discrete choice experiment

Abstract

Objective

Ras wild-type metastatic colorectal cancers (mCRC) may be treated with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) or anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) agents. We aim to estimate patients’ preferences for mCRC treatment and relative importance of cost, efficacy improvement, avoidance of side effects and therapy convenience, and relative uptake between profiles that resemble Bevacizumab (anti-VEGF) and Cetuximab (anti-EGFR), two commonly prescribed mCRC targeted therapies.     

For better or worse? Investigating the validity of best–worst discrete choice experiments in health

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are frequently used in health economics to measure preferences for nonmarket goods. Best–worst discrete choice experiment (BWDCE) has been proposed as a variant of the traditional “pick the best” approach. BWDCE, where participants choose the best and worst options, is argued to generate more precise preference estimates because of the additional information collected. However, the validity of the approach relies on two necessary conditions: (a) best and worst decisions provide similar information about preferences and (b) asking individuals to answer more than one choice question per task does not reduce data quality. Whether these conditions hold in empirical applications remains under researched. This is the first study to compare participants' choices across three experimental conditions: (a) BEST choices only, (b) WORST choices only, and (c) BEST and WORST choices (BWDCE). We find responses to worst choices are noisier. Implied preferences from the best only and worst only choices are qualitatively different, leading to different WTP values. Responses to BWDCE tasks have lower consistency, and respondents are more likely to use simplifying decision heuristics. We urge caution in using BWDCE as an alternative to the traditional “pick the best” DCE.     

胆道镜应用对肝胆胰术式选择的影响

目的 探讨分析胆道镜检查在肝胆胰疾患术式选择中的价值。方法 回顾分析1994～2004年收集术中或联合术后应用胆道镜治疗肝胆胰疾患2276例临床资料，进行分析及总结。结果 1966例肝胆管胆石患者胆道残留结石率从34．5％降至9．6％；82例术中胆道镜发现合并胆管狭窄，其中45例肝胆管膜状狭窄者在胆道镜指导下实施了有效扩张治疗；胆总管下段梗阻患者中224例肿瘤依据形态学检查，结合术中扪诊及活检组织学检查得到确诊，并采取了相应的手术方式。结论 胆道镜的应用有利于肝胆胰疾患术式的选择，可使一些较为复杂的胆道手术变得简单易行；对术前未能确诊的病变可以达到明确诊断并指导选择合理的术式。     

Choice of general practice for postgraduate training among medical graduates and undergraduates in Nigeria

A questionnaire survey of career choices was carried out among 112 medical graduates, after one year's internship (group I), during their National Youth Corps programme in Kaduna, Lagos, Cross River and Oyo states of Nigeria, and 365 final-year medical undergraduates (group 2) in the colleges of medicine in the corresponding states. A total of 13% in group I and 40% in group 2 were undecided as regards their first choice. Obstetrics and gynaecology was the most popular first choice in both groups. General practice ranked fifth among group I, but displaced surgery to rank second among group 2. The differences were statistically significant. A total of 41% of group I and 46% of group 2 preferred to work in a teaching hospital, reflecting the high preference for surgical specialties. Twenty-six per cent and 33.7% of respondents in groups 1 and 2 respectively wished to own their own practice or work in the private sector. General practice is a new specialty and its growth is supported by a national postgraduate training programme. A shift towards general practice is seen compared with previous studies of career preference among Nigerian medical graduates and students. This may be due to a changing balance of supply and demand in the medical work-force, or a better assessment of the nation's health problems and manpower needs.     

Mature-age entrants to medical school: a controlled study of sociodemographic characteristics, career choice and job satisfaction

A comparison of 121 mature-age and 270 normal-age entrants who graduated from the University of Queensland Medical School between 1972 and 1987 shows that mature-age entrants are some 7 years older, are more likely to come from public (state) schools and less likely to have parents in professional/technical occupations. Otherwise, the two groups were similar in terms of gender, marital status, number of children, ethnic background and current practice location. The educational background of mature-age entrants prior to admission includes 44.6% with degrees in health-science areas and 31.4% with degrees in non-health areas. Reasons for delayed entry of mature-age entrants include late consideration of medicine as a career (34.7%), financial problems (31.4%), dissatisfaction with previous career (30.6%), poor academic results (19.8%), or a combination of the above factors. Motivations to study medicine include family influences (more so in normal-age entrants), altruistic reasons (more so in mature-age entrants) and a variety of personal/social factors such as intellectual satisfaction, prestige and financial security (similar for both groups) and parental expectations (more so in normal-age entrants). Mature-age entrants experienced greater stress throughout the medical course, especially with regard to financial difficulties, loneliness/isolation from the students and family problems (a greater proportion were married with children). While whole-course grades were similar in both groups, normal-age entrants tended to win more undergraduate honours/prizes and postgraduate diplomas/degrees, including specialist qualifications. Practice settings were similar in terms of group private practice, hospital/clinic practice or medical administration, but there was a greater proportion of mature-age entrants in solo private practice, and a smaller proportion in teaching/research. If given the time over, some two-thirds of both groups would choose medicine as a career. Reasons for job satisfaction include helping patients, intellectual stimulation and financial rewards. Reasons for dissatisfaction include pressure of work, red-tape/paperwork, 'doctor-bashing', long working hours, emotional strain, financial pressure, unfulfilled career expectations and irritation with trivial medical complaints.     

Postgraduate qualifications of British doctors

Among British-qualified doctors of 1974 and 1977, about 80% held postgraduate qualifications of some kind. The commonest qualifications were DRCOG, MRCP and MRCOG. There were considerable differences between medical schools in the numbers of qualifiers taking various examinations. Apart from the MRC Psych, DRCOG and Family Planning Certificate, qualifications were more commonly held by men than women. Tables show the type of work being done 9-13 years after leaving medical school by holders of various postgraduate qualifications; e.g. 60% of MRCP holders were working in medicine or a medical specialty and 84% of FRCS holders in general surgery or a surgical specialty. Discussion deals with the plurality, specificity, variability, perceived necessity, sufficiency, international utility and career significance of British postgraduate qualifications.     

The Effect of Health Plan Characteristics on Medicare+Choice Enrollment

Objective. To provide national estimates of the effect of out-of-pocket premiums and benefits on Medicare beneficiaries' choice among managed care health plans.
Data Sources/Study Setting. The data represent the population of all Medicare+Choice (M+C) plans offered to Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 1999.
Study Design. The dependent variable is the log of the ratio of the market share of the j th health plan to the lowest cost plan in the beneficiary's county of residence. The explanatory variables are measures of premiums and benefits in the j th health plan relative to the premiums and benefits in the lowest cost plan.
Data Collection Methods. The data are from the 1999 Medicare Compare database, and M+C enrollment data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).
Principal Findings. A $10 increase in an M+C plan's out-of-pocket premium, relative to its competitors, is associated with a decrease of four percentage points in the j th plan's market share (i.e., from 25 to 21 percent), holding the premiums of competing plans constant.
Conclusions. Although our price elasticity estimates are low, the market share losses associated with small changes in a health plan's premium, relative to its competitors, may be sufficient to discipline premiums in a competitive market. Bidding behavior by plans in the Medicare Competitive Pricing Demonstration supports this conclusion.