Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

The effect of different statistical approaches on image quality data obtained from radiological examinations

IntroductionSelection of optimal image acquisition protocols in medical imaging remains a grey area, the superimposed use of the Likert scale in radiological image quality evaluations creates an additional challenge for the statistical analysis of image quality data.Using a simulation study, we have trialled a novel approach to analysing radiological image quality Likert scale data.MethodsA simulation study was undertaken where simulated datasets were generated based on the distribution of Likert scale values according to varying image acquisition protocols from a real dataset. Simulated Likert scale values were pooled in four different ways; the mean, median, mode and the summation of patient Likert scale values of which the total was assigned a categorical Likert scale value. Estimates of bias, MAPE and RMSPE were then calculated for all four pooling approaches to determine which method most accurately represented an expert's opinion.ResultsWhen compared to an expert's opinion, the method of summation and categorisation of Likert scale values was most accurate 49 times out of the 114 (43.0%) tests. The mean 28 times out of 114 (24.6%), the median 23 times out of 114 (20.2%) and the mode 17 times out of 114 (14.9%).ConclusionWe conclude that our method of summation and categorisation of Likert scale values is most often the best representation of the simulated data compared to the expert's opinion.Implications for practiceThere is scope to reproduce this simulation study with multiple observers to reflect clinical reality more accurately with the dynamic nature of multiple observers. This also prompts future investigation into other anatomical areas, to see if the same methods produce similar results.     

Validation of PATHFx 2.0: An open-source tool for estimating survival in patients undergoing pathologic fracture fixation

Treatment decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease rely on accurate survival estimation. We developed the original PATHFx models using expensive, proprietary software and now seek to provide a more cost-effective solution. Using open-source machine learning software to create PATHFx version 2.0, we asked whether PATHFx 2.0 could be created using open-source methods and externally validated in two unique patient populations. The training set of a well-characterized, database records of 189 patients and the bnlearn package within R Version 3.5.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing), was used to establish a series of Bayesian belief network models designed to predict survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Each was externally validated in both a Scandinavian (n = 815 patients) and a Japanese (n = 261 patients) data set. Brier scores and receiver operating characteristic curves to assessed discriminatory ability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated whether models should be used clinically. DCA showed that the model should be used clinically at all time points in the Scandinavian data set. For the 1-month time point, DCA of the Japanese data set suggested to expect better outcomes assuming all patients will survive greater than 1 month. Brier scores for each curve demonstrate that the models are accurate at each time point. Statement of Clinical Significance: we successfully transitioned to PATHFx 2.0 using open-source software and externally validated it in two unique patient populations, which can be used as a cost-effective option to guide surgical decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease.     

Mise à jour des croyances et congruence à l'humeur dans le trouble dépressif

Depressive disorder is characterized by a polymorphic symptomatology associating emotional, cognitive and behavioral disturbances. One of the most specific symptoms is negative beliefs, called congruent to mood. Despite the importance of these beliefs in the development, the maintenance, and the recurrence of depressive episodes, little is known about the processes underlying the generation of depressive beliefs. In this paper, we detail the link between belief updating mechanisms and the genesis of depressive beliefs. We show how depression alters information processing, generating cognitive immunization when processing positive information, affective updating bias related to the valence of belief and prediction error, and difficultie to disengage from negative information. We suggest that disruption of belief-updating mechanisms forms the basis of belief-mood congruence in depression.     

细菌药敏试验结果的统计分析及反馈

将临床细菌培养及其药物敏感试验结果定期进行统计、分析、反馈，既是医院分级管理和医院感染管理规范的有关内容和要求，更为临床诊断、治疗提供可靠的科学依据。     

混合Poisson分布及其应用：疾病的统计分布（五）

本文讨论了混合Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ分布的性质、应用条件、参数的估计及混合Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ分布阶数的确定，指出混合Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ分布可用于混合样本的判别归类，并用Ｂａｙｅｓ的思想导出其判别归类方法。模拟试验结果表明：当混合Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ分布中各部分的比例相差不大，而各部分的均值相差较大时，抽样效果和拟合效果越好，所得到的估计值越接近理论值；反之效果越差。     

Measuring behaviour: The tools and the strategies

Animal behaviour can be viewed as a stream of elements, which, once accurately described, can be counted and timed. Data acquisition techniques and tools are reviewed, and some strategies for collection and analysis of data using PC computers are suggested. Automated instruments are not satisfactory for the study of complex behaviour and as such systemic observation remains irreplaceable. IBM PC-type computers, with a wide range of analytical software (e.g., spreadsheets, statistical packages, technical graphics), are practical for data acquisition. Several systems which can satisfy different applications are reviewed. Some systems can communicate with a videorecorder, a facility which remarkably increases the accuracy of measurement; this is essential for meaningful analyses of the internal structure of behavioural streams (sequences, time patterns) or communication processes. The power of new tools enables behavioural measurement with the necessary complexity to allow a whole new set of questions to be addressed. However, it also increases demands for meaningful content and analysis of data.