2009-2018年资阳市手足口病流行病学及病原学特征分析

目的 研究2009-2018年资阳市手足口病的流行病学及病原学特征，为有效防控手足口病提供理论依据。方法 从中国疾病控制中心监测信息报告管理系统获取以乡镇为单位的手足口病数据，进行三间分布描述，利用ArcGIS 10.1软件制作专题地图。结果 资阳市2009-2018年累计报告病例19195例，年平均发病率为61.72/10万，虽总体上呈升高的趋势；各乡镇均有手足口病报告；每年有两个发病高峰，分别是5-7月和9-11月，其中5-7月为主高峰，9-11月为次高峰；男女性别比为1.44[DK]∶1，5岁以下儿童共发病18209例，占比为94.9%。2015年之前优势毒株为EV71和CoxA16，2015年之后优势毒株为其他肠道病毒。结论 资阳市手足口病发病呈持续升高态势。手足口病的优势毒株近年来在改变，应增加人肠道病毒的监测种类，落实综合性防控措施，预防和控制手足口病的流行。     

Recent trends in human leptospirosis in Italy

The recent epidemiological trends of human leptospirosis in Italy were investigated using data collected for the years 1981–1985. A total of 626 hospitalized patients with clinical diagnoses of suspected leptospirosis were reported by hospital centers from several Italian regions. Epidemiological, clinical and seroimmunological data were collected in 517 of these cases and examined by the National Center for Leptospirosis.Serological findings in 33.5% of these subjects met the criteria for confirmation of the disease. In 21.8% of the subjects, low titer antibodies were detected, which possibly reflected previous leptospiral infections. An early antibiotic treatment of the current infection may also have lowered the seroimmunological response in some of these patients.In 59.3% of the confirmed cases, modes of transmission were allotted equally between accidental events and recreational or occupational activities. Drinking water from an open air fountain emerged as an uncommon mode of transmission; it was responsible for an outbreak of 33 cases of leptospirosis. In another 37.07% of the subjects, it was impossible to establish the mode of transmission.Respiratory or influenza-like symptoms were the only clinical signs of illness in 21.2% of the patients with confirmed leptospirosis.In comparison to the sixties and seventies, the prevalence of infecting serovars showed increasing incidence of infections due to serovars of the Javanica (11.0%) and Australis (11.0%) serogroups and an important decrease in the Bataviae serogroup infections (from 58.8% in rice-field workers in the forties to 0.6% in the years 1981–1985). Sejroe serogroup infections accounted for 4.5 per cent of confirmed cases of leptospirosis.In 49.7% of subjects with confirmed leptospirosis, cross-agglutination at the same titre with two or more serovars of different sero-groups occurred, thus preventing the identification of the serogroup of the infecting strain.     

陕西省2000～2002年麻疹流行病学分析及控制策略探讨

为了解陕西省麻疹流行状况 ,以加速控制麻疹 ,对陕西省 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 2年麻疹发病资料进行流行病学分析。结果显示 :陕西省 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 2年麻疹年平均发病率比 1997～ 1999年上升了 6 5 7%。病例分布广泛 ,流行模式为爆发和散发并存 ,局部麻疹爆发影响着全省的麻疹发病水平。 3～ 6月为麻疹高发季节 ,0～ 2岁和 6～ 8岁为麻疹高发年龄组。对麻疹病例的免疫史分析表明 ,2 5 %的麻疹病例未接种麻疹疫苗 (MV) ,2 4 %的病例免疫史不详。报告病例的年龄和免疫史状况说明 ,MV的初种和复种需加强 ,同时要在全省范围开展一定年龄组儿童的MV强化免疫 ,调整现行MV的免疫程序 ,健全麻疹监测系统。     

2018—2020年珠海市学校流感样病例暴发疫情流行特征及影响因素分析

目的 分析珠海市2018—2020年学校流感样病例暴发疫情的流行特征和影响疫情规模的相关因素,为制定防控策略提供依据。方法 采用描述流行病学方法分析学校流感样病例暴发疫情流行特征,采用χ2检验和Logistic回归分析疫情规模的影响因素。结果 2018—2020年珠海市学校累计报告67起流感样病例暴发疫情,累计发病人数1 746例。发病高峰为每年3月—6月和12月—次年1月,主要发生在小学,流感样病例的发病年龄高峰为6～8岁。病原体主要为B型、A(H3N2)亚型和A(H1N1)亚型流感病毒。暴发疫情涉及病例咽痛发生率>50%的学校发生大规模流感样病例暴发疫情的风险是咽痛发生率≤50%学校的4.308倍(95%CI:1.100～16.864)。结论 2018—2020年珠海市学校流感样病例暴发疫情主要集中在冬春季节的小学,高咽痛发生率是学校发生大规模疫情流感样病例暴发疫情的危险因素。     

青海省中小学生肠道寄生虫感染的调查分析

目的 明确我省中小学生肠道寄生虫病的分布流行现状,为制定防治措施提供科学依据。方法 采用卢戈氏碘液片法检查肠道原虫;改良加藤氏厚涂片法检查蠕虫卵;肛周透明胶纸肛拭法检查蛲虫卵（12岁以下儿童）;试管滤纸培养法检查线虫幼虫。结果 调查20个县（市）32个调查点中的3485名中小学生,寄生虫总感染率为58.77%。男、女感染率分别为59.24%,蛲虫25.04%,鞭虫0.92%,结肠内阿米巴7.12%。蓝氏贾第鞭毛虫5.65%,溶组织内阿米巴0.52%,哈氏内阿米巴0.34%,微小内蜒阿米巴3.53%,布氏嗜碘阿米巴0.89%,人芽囊原3.07%。海东农业区学生感染最高（69.53%）,青南牧区最低（37.40%）。感染2种以上寄生虫者占22.95%。     

海南省山区霍乱流行病学分析

目的 为了解海南省山区的霍乱流行特点,为今后更好地预防、控制山区的霍乱流行提供理论依据。方法 采用统一制定的霍乱个案调查表和流行病学调查表进行调查,然后做统计分析。结果 1994～1998年,海南省山区发生6起食物型霍乱爆发疫情,发病191例,罹患率13．12％,病死6例,病死率3．14％。患者皆为黎族居民,各年龄组均有发病,以20～40岁组的青壮年所占比例最高,为67．54％。男性患者(65．97％)明显多于女性(34．03％)。疫情波及4个县(市)、8个乡(镇)、40个自然村。轻型病例仍然占大多数(62．30％)。对82株菌株的鉴定结果全部为小川lb型,与该省沿海地区自1994年后以小川1b型为优势流行株相一致。结论 导致这6起霍乱爆发的最主要原因是丧事聚餐,可疑食物均来自某市的海鱼。     

新型冠状病毒Delta变异株引起的广州市荔湾区本土疫情流行特征分析

目的 分析新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒）B.1.617.2（Delta）变异株引起的广州市荔湾区本土疫情流行特征,为Delta变异株疫情防控工作提供参考依据。方法 资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统和广州市荔湾区CDC,收集2021年5月21日至6月18日广州市荔湾区新冠病毒感染者（确诊病例和无症状感染者）相关信息。采用频数（构成比）、直方图、百分比堆积面积图等对本次Delta变异株疫情的流行病学特征进行描述,并应用潜伏期、动态再生系数（R_t）估计进行分析。结果 截至6月18日广州市荔湾区累计报告新冠病毒感染者127例,年龄范围2~85岁,<18、18~59和≥60岁年龄组分别占18.9%（24/127）、43.3%（55/127）和37.8%（48/127）。男女性别比为1：1.35（54：73）;职业以离退休人员32.3%（41/127）、家务及待业18.1%（23/127）和学生16.5%（21/127）为主;主要集中在荔湾区的白鹤洞街道（70.1%,89/127）与中南街道（23.6%,30/127）;Delta变异株的中位潜伏期6（范围：1~15）d;临床分型以普通型（64.6%,82/127）为主;基本再生系数（R₀）=5.1,R_t先上升后下降,最高达7.3;传播方式以密闭空间为主,具有明显的家庭聚集性,主要传播场所为家庭（26.8%,34/127）、餐馆（29.1%,37/127）、小区（3.9%,5/127）和市场（3.1%,4/127）。密切接触者筛查（66.1%）和社区排查（33.1%）是发现感染者的主要途径。结论 本次疫情新冠病毒Delta变异株的传染性较强,广州市荔湾区本土疫情具有明显的家庭聚集性,新冠病毒感染者以18~59和≥60岁年龄组为主。     

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination delay: A data-driven modeling analysis for Chicago and New York City

BackgroundBy the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccination became crucial to control the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe use daily COVID-19 reports from Chicago and New York City (NYC) from 01-Mar2020 to 28-Nov-2020 to estimate the parameters of an SEIR-like epidemiological model that accounts for different severity levels. To achieve data adherent predictions, we let the model parameters to be time-dependent. The model is used to forecast different vaccination scenarios, where the campaign starts at different dates, from 01-Oct-2020 to 01-Apr-2021. To generate realistic scenarios, disease control strategies are implemented whenever the number of predicted daily hospitalizations reaches a preset threshold.ResultsThe model reproduces the empirical data with remarkable accuracy. Delaying the vaccination severely affects the mortality, hospitalization, and recovery projections. In Chicago, the disease spread was under control, reducing the mortality increment as the start of the vaccination was postponed. In NYC, the number of cases was increasing, thus, the estimated model predicted a much larger impact, despite the implementation of contention measures.The earlier the vaccination campaign begins, the larger is its potential impact in reducing the COVID-19 cases, as well as in the hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, the rate at which cases, hospitalizations and deaths increase with the delay in the vaccination beginning strongly depends on the shape of the incidence of infection in each city.