Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of alternative vaccines against COVID-19 in Brazil: Coronavac vs. Astrazeneca vs. Pfizer

We propose a probabilistic model to quantify the cost-benefit of mass Vaccination Scenarios (VSs) against COVID-19. Through this approach, we conduct a six-month simulation, from August 31st, 2021 to March 3rd, 2022, of nine VSs, i.e., the three primary vaccine brands in Brazil (CoronaVac, AstraZeneca and Pfizer), each with three different vaccination rates (2nd doses per week). Since each vaccine has different individual-level effectiveness, we measure the population-level benefit as the probability of reaching herd immunity (HI). We quantify and categorize the cost-benefit of VSs through risk graphs that show: (i) monetary cost vs. probability of reaching HI; and (ii) number of new deaths vs. probability of reaching HI. Results show that AstraZeneca has the best cost-benefit when prioritizing acquisition costs, while Pfizer is the most cost-beneficial when prioritizing the number of deaths. This work provides helpful information that can aid public health authorities in Brazil to better plan VSs. Furthermore, our approach is not restricted to Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic, or the mentioned vaccine brands. Indeed, the method is flexible so that this study can be a valuable reference for future cost-benefit analyses in other countries and pandemics, especially in the early stages of vaccination, when data is scarce and uncertainty is high.     

Correcting forensic DNA errors

DNA mixture interpretation can produce opposing conclusions by qualified forensic analysts, even within the same laboratory. The long-delayed publication of the National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) study of 109 North American crime laboratories in this journal demonstrates this most clearly. This latest study supports earlier work that shows common methods such as the Combined Probability of Inclusion (CPI) have wrongly included innocent people as contributors to DNA mixtures. The 2016 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology report concluded, “In summary, the interpretation of complex DNA mixtures with the CPI statistic has been an inadequately specified—and thus inappropriately subjective—method. As such, the method is clearly not foundationally valid” [7]. The adoption of probabilistic genotyping by many laboratories will certainly prevent some of these errors from occurring in the future, but the same laboratories that produced past errors can also now review old cases with their new software—without additional bench work. It is critical that laboratories adopt procedures and policies to do this.     

Craving-induced effects of different drug cues on persons abstaining from heroin

Background: The key factors of inducing drug cravings in persons abstaining from drug use remain a focus of addictions research. Given the accumulating evidences, the scope of cues investigated in the cue-reactivity paradigm has increased considerably. Yet, few studies have examined the effects of the intensity and endurance of different types of cues on their ability to induce craving. This study investigated differences among drug-cue words, negative physiological-cue words, and negative social-cue words in the induction of drug cravings among persons abstaining from heroin.

Methods: The sample consisted of 149 male abstinent heroin abusers from four addiction rehabilitation centers in China. Based on their abstinence lengths, they were labeled as short-term, medium-term, and long-term abstainer participants respectively. All participants completed a stress-imagery task and rated craving by visual analog scale.

Results: There was a significant interaction of cue type and abstinence length. There was no difference on the craving induced by three types of cue words in the short-term group. In the medium-term group, craving induced by negative social-cue words was significantly stronger than that by negative physiological-cue words, but not that by drug-cue words. In the long-term group, the craving induced by negative social-cue words remained the strongest, significantly stronger than that by both drug-cue words and negative physiological-cue words.

Conclusion: Negative social-cue words presented in the current study retain the ability to induce craving in heroin abstainers; this finding suggests that negative social cues encountered under more general circumstances could be a risk factor for relapse.     

STRmix™ put to the test: 300 000 non-contributor profiles compared to four-contributor DNA mixtures and the impact of replicates

Probabilistic genotyping approaches are increasingly used for the interpretation of DNA mixtures. To explore the specificity of one of these systems (STRmix^™), we conducted an extensive study using 24 complex mixtures: all were known or apparent 4-person mixtures with at least one contributor representing less than 20% of total DNA, and all mixtures had at least one contributor with suboptimal DNA quantity. Those mixtures were either generated in-house or from casework. All the mixtures were compared to 300,000 virtual non-contributors, resulting in a dataset of 7.2 million comparisons. The great majority of the non-contributor comparisons led to a LR lower than 1 for a specificity of 99.1%. The effect of using replicate amplifications to calculate the LR of non-contributors was also assessed as triplicates were used and led to an increased specificity of 99.8%. The very large extent of the analyzed data shows that STRmix^™ has an excellent ability to discriminate non-contributors from complex DNA mixtures.     

Voluntary head stabilization in space during oscillatory trunk movements in the frontal plane performed in weightlessness

 The ability voluntarily to stabilize the head in space during lateral rhythmic oscillations (0.59±0.09 Hz) of the trunk has been investigated during microgravity (μG) and normal gravity (nG) conditions (parabolic flights). Five healthy young subjects, who gave informed consent, were examined. The movements were performed with eyes open or eyes closed, during phases of either μG or nG. The main result was that head orientation with respect to vertical may be stabilized about the roll axis under μG with, as well as without vision, despite the reduction in vestibular afferent and muscle proprioceptive inputs. Moreover, the absence of head stabilization about the yaw axis confirms that the degrees of freedom of the neck can be independently controlled, as was previously reported. These results seem to indicate that voluntary head stabilization does not depend crucially upon static vestibular afferents. Head stabilization in space may in fact be organized on the basis of either dynamic vestibular afferents or a short-term memorized postural body schema. Received: 4 October 1995 / Accepted: 30 September 1996     

Multimodal, Multidimensional Models of Mouse Brain

Summary:  Naturally occurring mutants and genetically manipulated strains of mice are widely used to model a variety of human diseases. Atlases are an invaluable aid in understanding the impact of such manipulations by providing a standard for comparison and to facilitate the integration of anatomic, genetic, and physiologic observations from multiple subjects and experiments. We have developed digital atlases of the C57BL/6J mouse brain (adult and neonate) as comprehensive frameworks for storing and accessing the myriad types of information about the mouse brain. Along with raw and annotated images, these contain database management systems and a set of tools for comparing information from different techniques and different animals. Each atlas establishes a canonical representation of the mouse brain and provides the tools for the manipulation and analysis of new data. We describe both these atlases and discuss how they may be put to use in organizing and analyzing data from mouse models of epilepsy.     

On a relaxation-labelling algorithm for quantitative assessment of tumour vasculature in tissue section images

Although tumour vasculature constitutes a biological factor playing a crucial role in the radiation response of tumours, the current procedures of assessment are semiquantitative, typically employing visual examination of stained histological material. Such techniques are also time consuming, and inefficient of extracting essential information on the vascular network. Image analysis has yet to contribute significantly in this direction, and most studies to date focus on blood vessel segmentation through empirical, user-selected thresholds. The present paper proposes an alternative segmentation approach, based on a probabilistic relaxation algorithm, applied in microscopic images of stained tissues. After image partitioning various information is obtained, such as vascular domains and geometrical characteristics of vessels.     

Multimodal architectonic mapping of human superior temporal gyrus

Although it is generally accepted that human superior temporal gyrus is activated by a huge variety of auditory and linguistic tasks, little is known about the exact positions and extents of cortical areas that are located on the lateral convexity of the gyrus (e.g., Brodmann’s area 22). Such information, however, is relevant for a rigorous testing of structural-functional relationships in both normal volunteers and patients suffering from disorders of auditory and language perception. The present combined cytoarchitectonic and receptorarchitectonic study identifies a distinct area (Te3) in the lateral bulge of the superior temporal gyrus by using an algorithm-based approach for the detection of cortical borders. Our mapping data show that, in contrast to Brodmann’s area (BA) 22, only small portions of Te3 reach the dorsal and ventral banks of the gyrus. Therefore, we labelled the newly defined area as “Te3” and not as “BA 22”. The cytoarchitectonically defined borders of Te3 coincide with abrupt changes in the receptorarchitecture of several classical neurotransmitters, suggesting that Te3 represents a functionally relevant area of the human superior temporal gyrus. Since position and extent of area Te3 varied considerably between subjects, probability maps were created that show for each voxel of the standard references space, the frequency with which Te3 was present in it. These maps, in combination with previously published maps of the primary auditory cortex, can directly be compared with functional imaging data, and may open new perspectives for the analysis of structural-functional correlations in the human auditory and language systems.     

Central and peripheral psychophysiological responses to trauma-related cues in subclinical posttraumatic stress disorder: a pilot study

This study examined verbal-subjective, peripheral and central physiological responses of motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors with subclinical posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), without PTSD symptoms as well as healthy controls. Seven persons of each group were exposed to positive, neutral, accident-related and negative, non-accident-related slides. The verbal-subjective ratings of the slides did not differ between the groups. In contrast to the verbal ratings of the trauma-related materials, the behavioral and physiological responses showed a remarkable dissociation from these reports. The startle responses were enhanced to accident-related slides only in the PTSD group and MVA survivors with PTSD had a significantly lower response to the neutral slides than MVA survivors without PTSD. P200 was lower to positive, neutral and negative slides in the PTSD group compared to both other groups. The late positive complex showed no group-related effects. The data suggest that traumatized persons with PTSD show exaggerated emotional responses to trauma-related stimuli and reduced cognitive responses to several types of stimuli that may interfere with the extinction of the emotional trauma memory.